Author Archives: Alan

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Conagra halved its dividend — shares remain uninteresting

We’re slowly picking up steam. It took a while, but reality is catching up with more and more companies. From those more prominent consumer names that instantly come to my mind, Diageo earlier this year, and later Flowers Foods, already have sliced their payouts. Now, Conagra followed suit as expected. All with the same goal: deleveraging. And for the same reasons: changed consumer behavior. I checked Conagra’s fresh results and the cut — but the stock remains risky and not attractive.

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General Mills: The Dividend (sh)could get crushed

Last week, I discussed the case of Flowers Foods, the largest publicly listed bakery in the US. The company has cut its “safe” dividend for the first time ever, unlike many other consumer staples that are still reluctant to do so — despite the market pressing them. Circumstances have changed, and wise managements better cut now, instead of denying reality any longer. Another candidate where the “safe” dividend might not be so safe is General Mills. The company reported another set of disastrous results. Although the payout is technically still covered, I have doubts it will be kept at this level.

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Flowers Foods: What now after the dividend cut?

Many investors experience a dividend cut negatively. Understandable on the surface, as shareholders will pocket less passive income. However, from a business perspective, it can be the absolute right move. Not only that, it can even be the catalyst that marks the bottom of a long and painful share-price decline. Flowers Foods sliced its payout into thinner pieces — the stock, however, did not crash. It surged. Is now the time to have a look at the stock?

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Big Spirits Stocks: From Premiumization to Mass Market?

For years I have been outspokenly negative about alcohol stocks, mainly the big three Western spirits companies. My criticism circled around managements’ constant denial of the new reality, over-expansion, high debt loads, what I call “the dividend burden”, and still-excessive valuations — despite huge, unprecedented share price drops. With this view, for long I was paddling against the consensus. Naturally, at some point these stocks should become interesting again. I don’t think we are there, yet. But something is changing.

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Learnings from the 5 Cases I Closed so far in 2026

From time to time, besides discussing new ideas in my exclusive research reports that I publish for my members, I also end coverage for one or the other active case. It can be for various reasons. There’s no firm scheme behind it. So far this year, I have what I call “closed” five ideas. In this weekly, I am uncovering these names, reviewing case by case my motivations for choosing them to be featured in my reports, but also my reasons for each of the closings as well as key learnings.

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Consumer Tectonics: Why branded FMCG Stocks have lost their edge + new research report

This is a topic I have already written many weeklies about. I haven’t counted them, but it might be the one with the most publications — very likely when adding my twitter posts and comments. Directly about certain struggling, popular consumer stocks and on a higher, aggregated level about the sector as such. I do not get tired of pointing towards what went wrong, but especially cautioning my readers to not fall for seemingly “cheap” consumer stocks. There are deep structural shifts that better not be ignored. Today, I am expanding on this topic, after having studied two eye-opening third-party consumer reports that manifest my negative view about these value traps.

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Europe’s Digital Sovereignty Push

Europe is finally reclaiming digital sovereignty. With the fresh Tech Sovereignty Package and Cloud & AI Development Act, the EU is shifting billions away from U.S. hyperscalers toward trusted European providers. Who benefits? Local companies. A look at IONOS, the German champion combining sticky SMB hosting, sovereign cloud contracts, and built-in AI defenses. Is it the next big winner — or is a better play out there?

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Pandora: charming enough after –60%?

Shares of Danish affordable-jewelry maker Pandora are extremely cyclical. Depending on one’s timing, it is possible to catch a fat multi-bagger, but also to watch it losing 50% or more in a relatively short amount of time. The most recent drawdown from the all-time high is 60% in just about 15 months. Usually, this has been a level to consider going long. Is this the case again?

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Recycling’s Moment: Turning Problem into Opportunity

Europe’s, and especially Germany’s, industrial machine runs primarily on imported raw materials. A mix of limited domestic deposits and seemingly unlimited regulatory hurdles to exploit factually available resources, has created near-total dependence on foreign supplies for critical inputs like oil, gas, copper, lithium, rare earths, and more. These are essentials for cars, machines, electronics, and even the “green transition”. Recent escalations in the Middle East have amplified supply risks, pushed prices higher, and exposed the fragility of long global chains. Could this be the wake-up call for serious recycling?

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Vital Farms: Eggs-tremely Dangerous Setup!

Over the last not even one and a half years, egg prices in the U.S. have gone through two extremes. A record high caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was followed by a collapse of unprecedented scale, leading to decade-low prices today. Being now likely closer to the bottom than the top, and with odds being low that eggs are going to be given away for free, it might be a good time to have a look at this sector. Vital Farms was shining bright on the way up. Is this now an egg-citing, countercyclical opportunity?

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