Author Archives: Alan

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WD-40: an overlooked portfolio lubricant?

Last Sunday, I finally went after an annoying task that had been waiting for me for too long: to remove sticky and really ugly glue from an entire big window frame. My first attempts failed miserably and I had left it untouched for some time. But that stuff needed to be finally done. After some research, I found the solution: WD-40, the home workers best friend. While in full swing, I remembered that WD-40 is also a publicly listed company! The stock has practically always been extremely expensive, but I haven’t covered it for years. Time for an update to answer the question whether this is a smooth slide or a rusty bet.

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Will Big Oil have to cut their dividends if oil prices stay low?

Over the last years many energy companies made gigantic windfall profits which allowed them to ramp up their shareholder distributions. Dividends and buybacks are often the reasons for investments in big energy companies. Since the high in 2022, oil prices have almost halved, though. With the main driver oil now trading around 60–65 USD, the question arises whether these generous payouts are sustainable. Short answer: no, if we see a longer period of low energy prices. What does this mean for the Supermajors and their investors? And how do I handle this unfavorable environment? Is it maybe even advantageous for my setup?

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PepsiCo – refreshing buy or just a crushed can?

The stock of soft drinks and snacks giant PepsiCo over the last five years has done exactly nothing. Dividends were the only form of returns, but this will hardly make investors high-five this market-lagging performance. With a just raised-again dividend, a yield on the high-end of the historical range, a comparatively low PE ratio of 16x and an uncertain economic environment, this consumer staple company might qualify for a defensive portfolio.

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Third time’s the charm? Is Capri finally a buy?

I already discussed the stock of Capri Holdings twice last year, prior to and after the failed takeover attempt by Tapestry. Capri’s stock fell even below my lower target of 20 USD from initially 35 USD. Now, sitting around 15 USD and having announced the sale of troubled Versace, many things have changed, requiring a reassessment of the case. If the sale goes through, the balance sheet flips from net debt to net cash at current figures. Also, loss-making Versace will stop to be a burden for the group. Is the third time now finally the charm?

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Pernod Ricard yields 5% – convincing enough?

Pernod Ricard’s stock has taken an almost unthinkable tumble, plummeting from a spirited high of over 200 EUR not too long ago in 2023 to even below 100 EUR now. That’s a 50% nosedive in just two years, while the broader markets – until they got a bit tipsy a few months back – were toasting new highs. The more so shocking, as Pernod Ricard is seen as a “recession-proof, high-quality company with valuable brands”. Is this a rare chance to grab a premium spirits stock at a bargain, letting its value intoxicate your portfolio? Or could it trap you in a value hangover?

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Searching for recession- and tariff-protection

Like I hinted in my outlook for 2025, this year indeed so far has proved to be rather volatile. Sentiment can change almost on a day-to-day basis, depending on political announcements. Even wild swings of 7–10% in just one day are not impossible. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to think about more defensive stocks, assuming the tariff circus continues and / or a recession hits soon. There are the usual suspects which can do the job. But I wouldn’t expect too much upside. My members have already received my next stock idea – one of the most defensive, recession- and tariff-unaffected businesses available – paired with decent upside.

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Afterword to the recent market crash

As irony and destiny wanted it, with the publication of my last Weekly, markets crashed down hard, effectively erasing much of the gains of the last twelve months. Of course, it wasn’t my publication that ignited the fireworks. I had written my Weekly shortly prior to the tariff announcement which was the catalyst that sent markets worldwide lower in fear of a major economic contraction. Big calls for another 1929 depression and 1987 Black Monday crash evaporated, at least for now. Then yesterday, one of the best days on Wall Street EVER. What to make out of this?

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Q1 is over – how hard was the correction for you?

Depending on your personal portfolio composition, the just closed first quarter 2025 might show an entirely different performance. While scrolling through twitter it reads almost like a hefty crash with big losses is behind us, the reality is on an aggregate level not much has happened so far. Even more contradictory, the current correction only involved certain sectors and individual stocks. This is the sector rotation I have written about in the past several times. What to draw out from it for our portfolios?

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Talos Energy – a strong buy trading 40% below NAV? + new stock idea

I like simplicity – in life in general, but especially in the context of stock investing. When analyzing commodity, respectively energy stocks, a good first approach to assess the valuation is to compare the current price with the net asset value (NAV). Talos Energy, an American offshore operator in the Gulf, looks like a promising deal. The company is a low-cost operator and trades (at least) 40% below its NAV. Supported by an active acquisition history as well as Mexico’s richest man, the company’s enterprise value has risen while oil is flat. Is this the window of opportunity to buy into this company while it’s still cheap?

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The Donlin Gold Project – America’s biggest gold mine in the making

Located in Alaska, the Donlin Gold Project is an impressive mine-in-development. When shovel-ready, it would be one of the biggest, if not the single biggest, gold mine in the entire Americas and even among the top mines globally. On top of a yearly output of more than 1 mn. ounces, an incredible mine life of almost 30 years is envisioned. Donlin is owned half-half by Barrick Gold and the much smaller NovaGold Resources. The latter has a market cap of 1.1 bn. USD while at current gold prices the mine could have a net present value of an incredible 40 bn. USD! Is this an overlooked multi-bagger?

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