Hypes and manias are part of the game of stock markets. Whenever a new trend emerges, more and more people hear of it and start to invest. Commonly, it’s first the professionals and depending on the underlying theme also ultra-contrarian investors. If a story has legs, then the retail crowd jumps in which often leads to exaggerations and bubbles. One of the current hypes is clearly weight loss drugs. But thinking around the corner, is there an overlooked, more conservatively valued stock to benefit?
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Why it makes no sense to copy Warren Buffett
This is a topic I’ve wanted to write about for a while. Those stock pickers who decide not to migrate to the camp of chartists, tee leaf readers or other witchcrafts, will likely join the group of value investors. In this context, the name of Warren Buffett must not miss. Many investors claim to emulate his strategy, others try to seek inspiration which stocks to buy. Today, I will show that both are delusions.
Continue readingMy outlook for 2024 – risks and opportunities
The old year closed with a look back (and an interview), the new year starts with an outlook. While it is not my job to try to predict the future per se, I have to make some thoughts and position myself accordingly, which influences my stock ideas – new ones, but also how to handle the published and active ones. This is what I want to discuss – risks, but of course also chances for stock pickers!
Continue readingInterview with a fellow investor + YouTuber
I am happy to publish my second interview – this time with someone with whom I’ve done many joint videos on YouTube. As a stock investor and blogger myself, I am also interested in what my colleagues are thinking, saying, writing or in this case broadcasting about different topics regarding stock investments.
Continue reading2023 review and my key insights
As 2023 is coming to an end and with the calmer Christmas holidays approaching, I thought it would be a good occasion to take a look back on the passing year. What topics did I write about, where did I nail it and where have I been completely wrong? Going deeply inside myself, what am I taking home?
Continue readingA second look at tobacco stocks after BAT’s gigantic write-down
One the most heavily watched and discussed stocks last week was British American Tobacco after it released a trading update. While the headline read relatively okay-ish, on the following pages they admitted to take a hefty 25 bn. GBP impairment on their US operations with the next earnings. While many see this as a non-event due to not affecting cash flows, I’m looking at it differently. I rather feel confirmed with what I wrote earlier in the year about Altria.
Continue readingToday’s tech-leaders… can stop existing tomorrow
Tech stocks, “Big Tech” or the “Magnificent Seven” – the same the names get more stupid, the riskier investing in their stocks becomes. Many do not see it this way. For the bona fide investor these are core investments of their portfolios with great future potential. However, a critical look back at history tells us that the risk / reward ratio is not favorable. Size does not equal safety.
Continue reading“Fallen Angels” – why you should be cautious + new research report
No matter whether experienced or not, almost every investor is on the hunt for undervalued stocks to make money. What could be less welcome than a stock which has fallen in price and become cheaper? The problem is, “cheap” is not automatically “cheap”. In fact, buying cheap can become a costly mistake. I see a strict urgency to clean up with this dangerous myth that a stock only has to fall enough to become attractive.
Continue readingFrom hype to bust – the story of 22nd Century Group
Likely, everyone will know a story that kicked a stock into hyposphere, only to fall into dust later. The respective companies either did not recover anymore or went entirely bust. They all share one commonality: a nice story that catches the interest of especially retail investors. But where there is excessive greed without the support of fundamentals, the fall from grace is just around the corner. Here’s an example that was set to disrupt an undisruptable industry: tobacco.
Continue readingWhy I don’t care about the Lindy effect
There are many rules of thumb and well-intentioned advice for younger investors. One such “rule” says that it is better to buy stocks of older and proven companies. While I do not disagree with this on an isolated basis, I am missing the second part, namely that every business has a certain life expectancy. There comes inevitably a time for every company to either step into the background or to disappear altogether. History is full of examples.
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