Category Archives: dividends

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Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part II – Alcohol stocks

After my take on food stocks, in today’s second part of the series I am having a look at another failed group of consumer darlings – alcohol producers. These “sin stocks”, similar to tobacco, have been seen for long as one of the best ideas to play defense. Especially in crises, it was said people would smoke and drink even more. The only difference: valuations. While most tobacco stocks today are deep-value plays, alcohol stocks for a long time have had rather rich multiples. Frustrating for those who only looked at the perceived quality of the companies, but not their risks. With many alcohol companies trading substantially below their highs, is now the time to get active?

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Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part I – Food stocks

Weren’t we told stocks of consumer staples should be cornerstones of every mindfully assembled portfolio? With their defensive business models, predictable demand (one needs to eat, drink, clean, etc.), strong brands, consistent dividends and long histories as proof of being in business for a reason, this sounds like a no-brainer. Winning by not losing, everything else is too speculative, isn’t it? However, over the last five and even ten years, exactly this group of stocks has disappointed extremely. Many are in the red and even factoring in their dividends the performance was abysmal. Are valuations now cheap enough to take a bite?

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Will Altria’s stock thrive under Trump 2.0? + new research report

Although the tobacco story seems to be well-known and boring, a few things have happened in the recent past. The feared menthol ban is now off the table. And with a more corporate-friendly administration Trump 2.0, there’s a good chance tobacco companies won’t be further pressured. Marlboro-maker Altria massively outperformed the S&P 500 over the last twelve months with double (!) the latter’s return. Does Altria now belong into a well-suited stock portfolio? My Premium PLUS members receive my latest stock idea – an indirectly tobacco- / nicotine-related company with the potential to be a multi-bagger already by year-end.

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Old money doesn’t go out of style – Ralph Lauren + new research report

Whether markets go up or down, it seems as if the spotlight only belongs to stocks linked to the sectors of tech, certain resources like uranium, lithium and maybe some oil and gas as well as the typical dividend stories. However, in the background and barely noticed by the broader public an entirely different name has made a ferocious comeback – Ralph Lauren. Boring for some, timeless for others, shares of RL outperformed the S&P 500 over the last one, three and five years (and even quarter-century). Not by little, but by a wide margin. Even before dividends. So, what’s in store for this iconic name?

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Retail crowd’s favorite REITs: disappointment likely to continue

REITs, or real estate investment trusts, are an asset class that is typically followed and bought by investors with a focus on cash flows in the form of dividends. One of the main arguments is that this way they don’t have to bother about stock price fluctuations, as their dividend income is safe. Sounds logical, but the long-term performance of three highly celebrated such REITs is simply weak. The worst thing, I am expecting this trend to continue or even to worsen.

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Swiss Re – next reinsurer to make a new high?

Most stocks of the world’s biggest reinsurance companies have made new all-time highs, surpassing their decades-long tops. One rare exception is the world’s number two, Swiss Re. With the painful zero interest rate period being over and despite what it looks like another rate lowering cycle, the business is benefiting in two ways: higher insurance premiums as well as higher yields on investments. Is an all-time high for the stock only a question of time?

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Curbline Properties – new REIT with huge net cash – a no-brainer buy?

Despite not being primarily a dividend investor myself, I have written one or the other time about shares of this asset class. Quite popular among income investors, REITs offer exposure to the real estate market in an uncomplicated way. They come without the drawback of having to concentrate on a few objects due to high capital requirements (usually debt-financed) and the need to manage them. With Curbline Properties, a new stock has started trading some two weeks ago. What’s so special about this company is that it comes with a huge net cash position, uncommon for REITs. Is it worth a look?

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The most profitable, but nearly forgotten online retailer – eBay

Maybe with the exception of the youngest generation, I’m tempted to say that everyone knows eBay. The online retailing dinosaur which was once declared dead due to explosively growing and more modern competitors, is still alive. In fact, it’s even the most profitable such platform. Not noticed by many, its stock has been climbing up to the second-highest point after the separation with PayPal. Time to look at eBay?

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Estée Lauder – after –75% still not pretty + dividend in danger

A common misconception is that lower stock prices are akin to cheaper shares. Without much explanation, it is logical that this can only apply when the underlying business has at least been stable. Otherwise it is possible that a stock even becomes more expensive! While this is not the case at Estée Lauder, despite a 75% drop from its all-time high, the stock is still looking ugly valuation-wise. A decent downside risk remains. On top, the likelihood for a dividend cut or even entire suspension is significant.

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Flow Traders – it was right to cut the loss

My longer time readers and members will be familiar with the Dutch company Flow Traders as it once was one of my stock ideas (my very first report I published since launching my blog). In late September 2023, now ten months ago, however, I closed this case at a small loss of –10% (including dividends). It was not an easy decision as this was more an unconventional stock idea (basically a hedge against a market crash). Looking back, this was absolutely the correct decision to cut the small loss, because it would be a bigger hole now…

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