Category Archives: stocks to avoid

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Vital Farms: Eggs-tremely Dangerous Setup!

Over the last not even one and a half years, egg prices in the U.S. have gone through two extremes. A record high caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was followed by a collapse of unprecedented scale, leading to decade-low prices today. Being now likely closer to the bottom than the top, and with odds being low that eggs are going to be given away for free, it might be a good time to have a look at this sector. Vital Farms was shining bright on the way up. Is this now an egg-citing, countercyclical opportunity?

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Redcare Pharmacy (ex Shop Apotheke)— Why I am sending this one back + new research report

The online pharmacy market seems to be a promising long-term growth story. After some regulatory delays and starting issues, this segment is showing explosive growth, with much more to come. At least this is the pitch. Hearing the pro arguments, much makes sense and seems to be the logical path forward. As it is not possible to invest in physical pharmacies for most of us, is the online pharmacy market leader in Germany maybe a good pick to get a foot in the door?

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Flight into mergers: the solution for “defensive” consumer companies?

One of my favorite topics (and targets for criticism) for quite some time have been consumer companies. Especially those with a seemingly defensive business model that in the past offered stability in times of market stress. This recipe does not seem to work anymore, though. First and foremost, food companies have experienced an unprecedented bear market that caught many risk-averse investors on the wrong foot. When stocks have fallen significantly, takeover interest arises. Is this a sign that shares of consumer staples have fallen enough?

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Positioned to not get wracked by a second inflationary wave

Due to the current circumstances, in this edition I am writing a more holistic and strategic weekly. It differs from what I am else publishing. Instead of discussing one concrete stock and aiming to be more or less precisely right with my directional call, my focus here lies on sharing my thoughts. Some of them might be in an early stage, necessitating more research, but also a wait-and-see observative approach. I am giving insights into sectors and ideas I have regarding where to have an eye on, but also where caution might be the better choice.

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Inspire Medical Systems — The solution for a good night’s sleep?

Imagine you cannot sleep at night as suddenly your airways are blocked. In the best case, you “just can’t sleep”, because you wake up repeatedly due to breathing pauses. In the worst case, you suffer serious side effects from sleep fragmentation, causing high blood pressure, heart diseases, and possibly worse outcomes. Sleep apnea is a chronic disease doing exactly this. Affected patients sleep with a machine and mask combo on their face as a first-line treatment, but this brings its own side effects and burden. Inspire Medical Systems developed an implanted solution, solving many issues. Could the stock be a SWAN (sleep-well-at-night) pick?

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Novo Nordisk: Weight-loss therapy for shareholders continues

The last almost five years have been a dizzying rollercoaster ride for shareholders of diabetes and obesity giant Novo Nordisk. With the beginning of the weight-loss wave in 2021, instigated by the approval of injection therapy Wegovy specifically for weight-loss, a ferocious three-year rally started. Novo shares quadrupled to above 1,000 DKK by summer 2024, making it even Europe’s most valuable company. The stock has lost 70% since then, with the cherry on top being the just released results and guidance for 2026 which sent Novo 17% lower yesterday. What now?

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Conagra Brands: A “defensive” consumer stock with an aggressive balance sheet

One or the other time, I have published a weekly about consumer stocks. My general view has been for years that these names should be avoided, being it food, beverage, or alcohol stocks, partly also household and cleaning producers (except one name I published a research report about, it’s up +22% over the last five months). Investors who bought blindly solely based on past performance have suffered big losses. While hopes for a turnaround to finally arrive continue to be high, there’s little reason to be overly optimistic. These stocks have lost their status as “defensive” core positions not for one, but for several reasons. The case study of Conagra Brands.

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Nine lost years — Bottom in sight for Nestlé?

Since its peak at around 130 CHF per share and a market cap of almost 400 billion CHF, consumer staples heavyweight Nestlé has highly disappointed its fan base of predominantly defensively oriented investors. Who’d have thought that THE core investment in the consumer staples sector (besides Coca-Cola) could see its stock price get almost cut in half? Although I have not written a weekly about Nestlé so far, my readers know that Nestlé has not been interesting all the time. Is it now worth a look?

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My next Target for a Dividend Cut is a King

I stick to my view which many investors don’t share: this decade will be remembered as the one where dividends have been cut, not sparing big names. With this, I do not mean the obvious candidates like cyclical commodity producers or European car makers, but the ones where it really hurts (for dividend and income investors). In the past, I have written several weeklies, digging out names with proud series that have come to an end or with a high likelihood will end in the not-too-distant future. My next target is another dividend king.

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The Oracle in the AI coal mine?

Over the last months, I have written two Weeklies, criticizing the from my view not sustainable AI investment frenzy, featuring Meta’s stock as my main target. Maybe this was because Meta is a mainstream darling that on top has delivered a stellar return over the last three years. However, little did I know that there is an even more interesting case in the second row. With some interesting developments in the recent past, is this the Oracle in the AI coal mine for what to expect?

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