From time to time, besides discussing new ideas in my exclusive research reports that I publish for my members, I also end coverage for one or the other active case. It can be for various reasons. There’s no firm scheme behind it. So far this year, I have what I call “closed” five ideas. In this weekly, I am uncovering these names, reviewing case by case my motivations for choosing them to be featured in my reports, but also my reasons for each of the closings as well as key learnings.
Important disclaimer: All content is for information, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute personal investment recommendations or advice, but the sole personal, highly subjective opinion of the author.
Summary and key takeaways from today’s Weekly
– Investing based on past performance makes no sense.
– But reviewing former ideas and case studies delivers important insights.
– I discuss all the five cases that I closed so far in 2026.
Most of the time, I am publishing free weeklies about stocks that I analyzed, but that have NOT made it into one of my member-exclusive research reports. This does not automatically disqualify them entirely from ever being selected, though.
To the contrary, with time I revealed for example that Zoom Communications (ISIN: US98980L1017, ticker: ZM) was first featured in a weekly with a wait-and-see vote, only to make it into a research report at a later point. The stock fell a bit between my free weekly and my member’s report, resulting in a lower valuation and a more favorable risk and reward setup.
But likewise and more important, the company made operational progress.
Since my report came out in November 2023, the stock did very well. So well that it is one of only few software stocks that has not collapsed due to AI disruption fears. Practically all the big boys have. Zoom, however, turned from a pure-play video conferencing company into a tangible workplace collaboration and AI story.
You see, anything is possible.
And Zoom is not the only one having gone this way, from free weekly (currently not interesting) to one of my reports.
This time, I am turning things around. I unpack ideas that first made it into my reports, but which I have closed in the meantime.
I am doing this to distill valuable insights and key learnings from these case studies.
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Important disclaimer: All content is for information, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute personal investment recommendations or advice, but the sole personal, highly subjective opinion of the author.
Learning from the past, not investing based on it
My longer-time readers will instantly know what I want to express with this headline.
I have been frequently pointing towards shifting thought processes to likely future business developments instead of past performance as the guide for personal investment decisions. It is no secret that the market is pricing future expectations, not the former glory days.
Yet, in practice, according to my own observations, still many people discuss investment cases based on what happened once upon a time:
- The company has been having a strong brand for decades.
- Shares made an all-time high a few years ago.
- At the top, its valuation multiple was higher than it is today.
- The stock has been paying a dividend for decades.
Sounds familiar?
Not seldom, the discussed ideas are operationally challenged companies — and value traps.
If one can speak of value at all.
Not all fallen stocks are automatically cheap, or as I like to call it rather, attractively valued. It all certainty depends on one’s future expectations. And on how the business is doing. In brief, the risk and reward setup.
That was the part about “investing based on past performance”, as I often describe it.
Now, in this weekly, I am putting five real cases on the table that all my members know from my research reports. They have been closed, meaning I am no longer publishing updates about them (assuming I do not reopen them, which is possible). I still have an eye on most of my closed cases, but they are not front and center anymore.
But let’s get through them one by one — looking for the key learnings.
I published these ideas between February 2024 and July 2025 and closed them between February and May 2026.
Here, the theoretical holding periods, respectively the durations of my coverage, lasted between less than a year and more than two years. It might sound like rather short periods. In these cases it is even true.
But I indeed prefer to keep cases covered for longer. Among my longest-standing ideas, the first one crossed three years just recently, with the next two being in line to do so next month.
As such, I do not have a rule for how long I keep covering a case.
It depends on the individual circumstances.
All of the five closed between +27% and +92% on a total-return basis in USD (including dividends when applicable). The performance of these five stock ideas is not in the spotlight, though.
I want to discuss my thoughts and key takeaways.
Starting with the first name (in the order of closing dates):
McBride plc (ISIN: GB0005746358, ticker: MCB) is a British producer of private-label cleaning supplies in Europe. It is either the market leader or among the leaders in this sector, depending on individual markets.
Below, you can see the long-term chart and the point where I published my report.
The business model is straightforward.
The company is benefitting from cost-of-living struggles and sticky (but not too high) inflation. Here in Germany for example, McBride is often the main producer for popular discounters and drug stores, being it dishwasher tabs, washing powder and fluids, or air sprays.
Consumers are seeking more value for their money.
And, as I described in my last weekly (see here), especially younger consumers see private labels more and more as strong brands. Meanwhile, producers of branded products have overdone it with pricing, now paying the price by bleeding volumes.
People who discover that private labels are not as bad as their image was in the past, are more likely to stay loyal. This is a long-term driver for the company. With more volumes, economies of scale support margin expansion.
The reason for the huge dip between 2021 and 2023 / 2024 was that McBride had serious financial issues. After inflation surged mainly starting in 2022, McBride’s long-term supply contracts suddenly turned against them. They were not able to raise contractually fixed prices fast enough to steer against exploding costs.
The resulting margin squeeze and debt concerns brought them on the brink of financial collapse.
McBride recovered, though.
I published my report after the balance sheet was cleaned up meaningfully, while the positive drivers remained intact. Above, we can see that McBride even managed to reach new highs for gross and operating margins, confirming what I wrote above — this business if benefitting.
However, after a really solid run, the reintroduction of the dividend, some share buybacks, and again arising inflation, I decided to close coverage on this low-margin business. Although management gave an update that they are renegotiating prices to pass on inflation, I saw shares being in my view fully valued, while the risk profile increased again.
I believe that long-term the business will continue benefitting.
But from an investment perspective, I don’t like the setup as I did last year, when I published my report. I want to see the next full results first, including what’s going to be said on the call about the operating environment. Ideally, shares will be lower then.
Valeura Energy (ISIN: CA9191444020, ticker: VLE) is a Canadian company with headquarters in Singapore and active operations in Thailand. It might sound complex until here, but the case is / was rather clear.
The company has low-cost energy-production assets in the Gulf of Thailand.
At the time of my report mainly oil, but in the meantime gas started to play a bigger role. Valeura focusses on Thailand which is a mature oil-producing jurisdiction with short expected remaining reserve life. The majors have practically left Thailand so that after a few well-timed and cheap acquisitions, Valeura has turned into the number two producer after the big state-owned entity.
In a nutshell, Valeura which also owns some interesting assets in Türkiye, bought what others wanted to get rid of. But instead of running dry on weak assets, Valeura managed to extend field lives by discovering new reserves. Even multiple times.
There’s a bit more to this case, but in very brief this is the main plot.
As a low-cost producer, Valeura already had very high margins in times of low oil prices not too long ago. This resulted in a balance sheet full of net cash, which is rather unusual for a capital-intensive energy business.
The comparison has its flaws, I am aware of that, but below I compared Valeura’s operating margins with those of Exxon Mobil (ISIN: US30231G1022, ticker: XOM).
Valeura experienced a major uplift when energy prices jumped earlier this year.
But in my view, taking everything together, the stock ran ahead of its fundamentals on one side, while on the other a few jurisdictional risks emerged. The Thai government closed energy exports to supply the domestic market first.
My risk radar turned on.
I could not rule out some special windfall taxes (on top of already high petroleum taxes) or even worse direct interventions into the business.
In that sense, it was very clear for me: safety first.
After the strong run, it was not a tough decision. Interestingly, I almost hit the top and Valeura shares have lost the most inside this group of five until today.
Next one, Precision Drilling (ISIN: CA74022D4075, ticker: PD).
Canada’s biggest land-drilling equipment producer and leaser is a hell of a cyclical company. The long-term chart below shows it and it tells us that investing on past performance here would have made even less sense.
Or rather kept such investors sidelined altogether, as there was not much to create a thesis on with this mindset (and chart).
That’s why here is the ten-year chart for a better overview.
Like practically the entire industry, PD went through a painful bear market due to low energy prices and falling drilling activity, culminating in 2020 when the world came almost to a standstill. When the producers cut investments to preserve cash or to return more to shareholders, companies like PD lose business.
Today, shares are within reach of their ten-year high again.
My thesis was that Precision Drilling was too cheaply valued for what it offered.
It is not just the Canadian market leader. But the company has been gaining market share in the US, especially in gas-rich basins, thanks to its high-tech fleet. Unlike Canada, the US business environment has been extremely challenging.
But Precision Drilling held up very well.
In that sense, it was still generating healthy free cash flows which were used to aggressively lower debt. At a later stage, buybacks started to ramp up.
This is a combination I like to see — and would like to see more often.
The more so, if the company is trading meaningfully below its tangible book value.
I am not per se a friend of book values for valuation purposes in the sense of a broad-brush approach or a solution-for-all tool. But when it comes to old-economy, heavy industry, respectively tangible assets, the figure still makes sense to be used for valuation purposes.
And that’s what I did. Price to tangible book was my main tool (in addition to following and assessing the core operating developments).
Of course it was painful to first see shares slipping down shortly after my report came out to an even much more cheaper level, seemingly proving me and my thesis to be wrong. In my updates to my members, I pointed out that this case remained robust and the company was doing well.
The recovery came and it was powerful, sending shares much higher again.
Unfortunately, to a level where the valuation in my view has become too ambitious.
The chart above shows that between 1–1.25x tangible value there has been a historical ceiling. Whether this will be the case remains to be seen. But my core thesis that the company is too cheap to be ignored, had already played out.
Management, which by the way in the meantime changed, is still focussed on debt reduction which I appreciate. However, buybacks make less sense now because torque is much lower.
Of course, shares could go higher.
But for now, they have fallen a bit and, more important, the risk and reward profile is not as attractive as it was earlier. Not even close. In the same token, upstream companies (producers) remain reluctant to meaningfully increase drilling activities, limiting operational upside or igniting a new big bull market for PD.
But this has been, at least partially, priced into the stock.
Case number four is again an energy company — the last one for today: Equinor (ISIN: NO0010096985, ticker: EQNR). The Norwegian energy giant was one of those cases where I had a firm thesis, the company did relatively well based on the external environment of low and falling energy prices, but the stock did not want to react.
Quite the opposite, EQNR shares continued to painfully grind lower and lower.
Mainly because European gas prices were falling.
In the long run, it looks like EQNR would be grinding higher, even though with fluctuations.
This might be true in the big picture.
But it doesn’t change the fact that this case, too, is extremely cyclical. The special thing about Equinor was that after the surge of energy prices, mainly natural gas in Europe, the company made a fortune. Much more in relative terms to its size and compared to its bigger competitors.
The balance sheet was suddenly in a big net cash position.
Equinor started to pay special dividends and buying back shares aggressively. Management communicated that the goal was to distribute the excess cash to shareholders to reach again a modestly-levered capital structure.
Mission accomplished.
The good thing was, and one of the biggest pillars of my thesis, that Equinor was doing the buybacks exactly as they should — in the way that made the most sense to create shareholder value.
Most cyclical companies have no money left over at the bottom of commodity prices (and own stock prices). When the cycle runs hot, suddenly cash is available, but shares are not dirt-cheap anymore.
Equinor, likely also with a bit of luck and timing of events, did the opposite.
They used parts of their excess capital to buy back stock exactly during the time when their shares were falling and trading for cheap multiples. Concretely, they scooped up a high single-digit share of outstanding stock on an annualized basis.
Energy companies, like the big names, usually can buyback 1–3% of shares per year.
Equinor did two to three times that pace.
Here’s a comaprison of Equinor in orange and Exxon Mobil in green. Note, Exxon bought of Pioneer Natural Resources in between, the back-then biggest independent shale producer (and also a member-exclusive idea).
But even ignoring that, the pace of buybacks does not compare to what Equinor did.
The recipe was simple: flush with cash, cheap valuation, massive buybacks.
Plus a very robust dividend.
In that sense, even though of course not a low-risk investment or even a no-Brainer, the downside seemed to be quite limited. Even though shares dropped noticeably in between when oil and gas prices fell, the buybacks gained more traction.
Fast forward, much higher energy prices, EQNR stock jumps to new highs.
Thesis played out, thank you.
The question could be now why not keeping Equinor as it could once again be flush with cash. My answer: first, the market has priced that in already, and second Equinor is not a growing company. This makes it almost entirely dependent on commodity prices, oil and natural gas.
With the risk-and-reward profile having shifted strongly from favorable to fully priced, it was clear to me that, at least for now, this cyclical story has rather come to a turning point.
And the last case I closed in 2026 is one that I have closed for the second time even.
I had published my initial research report about United Therapeutics (US91307C1027, ticker: UTHR) back in 2023. However, after some sideways moves and a key competitor slowly gaining the upper hand in a year-long legal battle, I decided to switch horses.
Later, I switched back again to UTHR, which was not the best decision, even though UTHR in its second run did very well — operationally, but also the stock.
In brief and simplified terms, United Therapeutics is the leading company in the area of certain lung diseases. Its products are currently approved for two pesky diseases, both of which are progressing and leading to premature patient deaths.
Shown on the chart is the timing of my second coverage start.
Basically, I reinitiated coverage in May 2025, because despite a weaker product than its upcoming competitor, UTHR was and still is an established company. It has strong margins and cash flows as well as a huge net cash position on its balance sheet.
But that’s not all.
UTHR has a pipeline with multiple potential catalyst, of which many could be able to boost sales meaningfully, if approved. For two running clinical trials, UTHR in the meantime published positive readouts, which sent the stock higher.
To a level, where I started to doubt the setup as being strongly favorable.
UTHR’s competitor has made a very strong launch, taking market share from UTHR. Plus, the readouts have been priced into the stock in my view. At least multiples have gone up noticeably, meaning the setup slowly shifted towards a “show me” case.
It is not hard to see that UTHR stock trades for one of the highest multiples now.
This alone was not the reason for me to close this case, though. Prior, UTHR traded for low, partly even single-digit multiples, because the company was operating with drugs that were off-patent. However, they held up much better than thought, until new therapies came to market, causing a rerating.
This time, it is about expanding market reach. Partly with new areas of treatment, partly by targeting existing issues with new forms of application and, as pitched by management, higher convenience and efficacy.
Time will tell.
However, UTHR went very aggressively into buybacks recently.
The current buyback authorization is even much bigger than what is displayed on the chart.
UTHR is now firing aggressively.
In my view, partly also to appease shareholders, as momentum is clearly on the side of the competitor. The presented readouts will be used to submit new drug applications, respectively an extension to an approved drug for another disease.
But all in all, for me, this looks fully priced for the time being.
So, what are the lessons and key takeaways?
>>> First of all, a case, as robust as it might sound at the time of publication, can turn against the best thesis.
This happened to me multiple times, and not just with today’s examples.
It does not matter how cheap or attractively priced a stock is, it can fall further. What it does, it reduces the valuation risk (when fundamentals don’t deteriorate), but it does not eliminate it altogether. This seems obvious, nonetheless it is important to understand it and to constantly remind ourselves that even perceived lower-risk cases still have certain risks.
>>> Which leads us to point number two, keep calm.
The more so, if shares indeed start to fall against one’s expectation and conviction. Every case requires to be monitored and reassessed. What I am personally doing is challenging my view (the best I can, though, some subjectivity will always remain). Have I missed certain risks or have new risks that previously were not there emerged?
Is the case still solid, maybe even more than before, but it just requires time until the thesis plays out?
>>> Third, valuations matter. Always. And they will always matter.
The market can remain irrational or too optimistic for quite some time. This does not mean, however, that one should abandon the personal strategy and let emotions take over.
The opposite is true when the market punishes certain names, despite solid fundamentals like cash generation, clean balance sheets, certain triggers on the horizon that are beyond a quarter’s earnings release.
>>> This leads us to the fourth key takeaway. I do not know how to call it in one word, but I try to answer the question whether, despite the lack of share price appreciation, something is changing for the better from a business owner’s perspective.
Typically, this could be meaningful debt reduction or aggressive buybacks that are self-funded and really make sense at low share prices and multiples. Is the company doing clever deals while the market is pessimistic for a strong rebound once sentiment shifts to more positive expectations?
>>> The last one: I clearly prefer companies with robust balance sheets.
While with this view, I might leave some potential returns on the table, when a troubled company indeed stages a strong turnaround, it is absolutely clear to me that a clean balance sheet gives stability, financial flexibility, and it keeps many headaches away.
”The stock must go up” is not a thesis. At the latest when a stock turns against you, you will be stress-tested. This is the time when you need to be able to challenge your thesis in order not to get kicked out before the turnaround sets in.
As a bonus, because you’ve read until here, you can download all my initial reports to the discussed cases from today’s weekly for free — just click on the respective screenshots of the cover previews.
Conclusion
Investing based on past performance makes no sense.
But reviewing former ideas and case studies delivers important insights.
I discuss all the five cases that I closed so far in 2026.
Important disclaimer: All content is for information, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute personal investment recommendations or advice, but the sole personal, highly subjective opinion of the author.
By becoming a Premium or Premium PLUS Member, you get instant access to all my published member-exclusive research reports as well as updates via my archive.
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