Tag Archives: Crisis Investing

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Beiersdorf: German consumer-darling on the sale rack?

The stock of the “Nivea” company for long has been an unspectacular, almost quiet compounder inside the Dax. Barely anyone talked about it, except maybe in the context of a mean management that was reluctant to raise the dividend for many years. Shares nonetheless performed well, offering a defensive and stable pick with solid returns for investors. Unfortunately, this has come to a spectacular end — shares have lost 50% from their high. Is this now a good opportunity to load up?

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Flight into mergers: the solution for “defensive” consumer companies?

One of my favorite topics (and targets for criticism) for quite some time have been consumer companies. Especially those with a seemingly defensive business model that in the past offered stability in times of market stress. This recipe does not seem to work anymore, though. First and foremost, food companies have experienced an unprecedented bear market that caught many risk-averse investors on the wrong foot. When stocks have fallen significantly, takeover interest arises. Is this a sign that shares of consumer staples have fallen enough?

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Positioned to not get wracked by a second inflationary wave

Due to the current circumstances, in this edition I am writing a more holistic and strategic weekly. It differs from what I am else publishing. Instead of discussing one concrete stock and aiming to be more or less precisely right with my directional call, my focus here lies on sharing my thoughts. Some of them might be in an early stage, necessitating more research, but also a wait-and-see observative approach. I am giving insights into sectors and ideas I have regarding where to have an eye on, but also where caution might be the better choice.

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Can this company achieve what hasn’t been done in 20 years?

Everyone is aware of tobacco / cigarette companies and their stocks. For many investors, these are absolute core investments for their stability and high dividends. Against all negativity and a shrinking pool of smokers, tobacco companies managed to survive and thrive. Almost a year ago, my Premium PLUS members received an exclusive report from me with an idea with ties to this sector — but from an entirely different viewpoint. I am making this case public now, discussing the rollercoaster that’s behind us, but also what’s ahead of us.

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Conagra Brands: A “defensive” consumer stock with an aggressive balance sheet

One or the other time, I have published a weekly about consumer stocks. My general view has been for years that these names should be avoided, being it food, beverage, or alcohol stocks, partly also household and cleaning producers (except one name I published a research report about, it’s up +22% over the last five months). Investors who bought blindly solely based on past performance have suffered big losses. While hopes for a turnaround to finally arrive continue to be high, there’s little reason to be overly optimistic. These stocks have lost their status as “defensive” core positions not for one, but for several reasons. The case study of Conagra Brands.

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Don’t skip this: Why I‘ve been (+ remain) negative on consumer stocks

I must admit I am surprised how angry people can become when their widows and orphans stocks, mainly consumer staples with reliable dividends, are attacked. It is no secret that I‘ve been writing and commenting negatively about them for some time. And I was right in most cases, as these “safe bets“, which according to the fan base belong in every defensive portfolio, have performed very poorly. I stick to my view that the dividends won’t be safe over time. Once and for all, I am now unveiling why my pessimism likely is warranted.

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Investing in stocks of bankrupt companies + new research report

Investing in stocks of companies that went bankrupt, seriously? Seriously! What at first sounds like a recipe for disaster, indeed can be a lucrative endeavor. A bankrupt company is not the same as the ceasing of operations. Indeed, often it is even the case that companies go into bankruptcy restructuring while everyday operations continue. This area can be a great treasure trove to fish for potential multi-baggers where others don’t bother due to negative associations. A premier on Financial Engineering: My Premium PLUS members receive my latest stock idea – a pick that recently emerged from bankruptcy – with the potential to multi-bag.

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Three high-quality gold mining stocks (for your watchlist) + new research report

In May 2024, I published a Weekly about gold mining stocks. My focus was on how to analyze them, and which parameters to know and watch. I also compared the industry’s three biggest names to evaluate how they performed, and why so (at that time, they had, surprisingly for many, underperformed the spot gold price). Today, I discuss three gold miners I like from a quality perspective for the watchlist. All my members on top will receive my latest stock idea – a gold stock, but with a slightly different case. Even if the gold price does not rise, this could become a multi-bagger which is unlikely for most gold stocks.

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Is Insmed a Promising Biotech Blockbuster? + new research report

Insmed, a biotech company with one approved drug and a very promising pipeline, in the last 13 months saw its stock going up by a factor of no less than 4x – plus 300%! There were two key events each propelling the stock decisively higher. Both were updates on ongoing clinical trials only. I am saying deliberately “only”, because it is not even a given that biotechs surge so much after drugs get approved by the FDA, yet, here it happened twice following just updates to clinical trials. The reason: Insmed’s assets are very promising with each potentially achieving blockbuster status (> 1 bn. USD is sales, both potentially multi-billions). Is it now time to jump onto this precious opportunity? My Premium PLUS members will soon receive my latest stock idea with a much more attractive setup.

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PepsiCo – refreshing buy or just a crushed can?

The stock of soft drinks and snacks giant PepsiCo over the last five years has done exactly nothing. Dividends were the only form of returns, but this will hardly make investors high-five this market-lagging performance. With a just raised-again dividend, a yield on the high-end of the historical range, a comparatively low PE ratio of 16x and an uncertain economic environment, this consumer staple company might qualify for a defensive portfolio.

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