Tag Archives: Inflation

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Consumer Tectonics: Why branded FMCG Stocks have lost their edge + new research report

This is a topic I have already written many weeklies about. I haven’t counted them, but it might be the one with the most publications — very likely when adding my twitter posts and comments. Directly about certain struggling, popular consumer stocks and on a higher, aggregated level about the sector as such. I do not get tired of pointing towards what went wrong, but especially cautioning my readers to not fall for seemingly “cheap” consumer stocks. There are deep structural shifts that better not be ignored. Today, I am expanding on this topic, after having studied two eye-opening third-party consumer reports that manifest my negative view about these value traps.

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Pandora: charming enough after –60%?

Shares of Danish affordable-jewelry maker Pandora are extremely cyclical. Depending on one’s timing, it is possible to catch a fat multi-bagger, but also to watch it losing 50% or more in a relatively short amount of time. The most recent drawdown from the all-time high is 60% in just about 15 months. Usually, this has been a level to consider going long. Is this the case again?

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Recycling’s Moment: Turning Problem into Opportunity

Europe’s, and especially Germany’s, industrial machine runs primarily on imported raw materials. A mix of limited domestic deposits and seemingly unlimited regulatory hurdles to exploit factually available resources, has created near-total dependence on foreign supplies for critical inputs like oil, gas, copper, lithium, rare earths, and more. These are essentials for cars, machines, electronics, and even the “green transition”. Recent escalations in the Middle East have amplified supply risks, pushed prices higher, and exposed the fragility of long global chains. Could this be the wake-up call for serious recycling?

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Beiersdorf: German consumer-darling on the sale rack?

The stock of the “Nivea” company for long has been an unspectacular, almost quiet compounder inside the Dax. Barely anyone talked about it, except maybe in the context of a mean management that was reluctant to raise the dividend for many years. Shares nonetheless performed well, offering a defensive and stable pick with solid returns for investors. Unfortunately, this has come to a spectacular end — shares have lost 50% from their high. Is this now a good opportunity to load up?

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Flight into mergers: the solution for “defensive” consumer companies?

One of my favorite topics (and targets for criticism) for quite some time have been consumer companies. Especially those with a seemingly defensive business model that in the past offered stability in times of market stress. This recipe does not seem to work anymore, though. First and foremost, food companies have experienced an unprecedented bear market that caught many risk-averse investors on the wrong foot. When stocks have fallen significantly, takeover interest arises. Is this a sign that shares of consumer staples have fallen enough?

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Positioned to not get wracked by a second inflationary wave

Due to the current circumstances, in this edition I am writing a more holistic and strategic weekly. It differs from what I am else publishing. Instead of discussing one concrete stock and aiming to be more or less precisely right with my directional call, my focus here lies on sharing my thoughts. Some of them might be in an early stage, necessitating more research, but also a wait-and-see observative approach. I am giving insights into sectors and ideas I have regarding where to have an eye on, but also where caution might be the better choice.

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Nine lost years — Bottom in sight for Nestlé?

Since its peak at around 130 CHF per share and a market cap of almost 400 billion CHF, consumer staples heavyweight Nestlé has highly disappointed its fan base of predominantly defensively oriented investors. Who’d have thought that THE core investment in the consumer staples sector (besides Coca-Cola) could see its stock price get almost cut in half? Although I have not written a weekly about Nestlé so far, my readers know that Nestlé has not been interesting all the time. Is it now worth a look?

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Retail crowd’s favorite REITs: disappointment likely to continue

REITs, or real estate investment trusts, are an asset class that is typically followed and bought by investors with a focus on cash flows in the form of dividends. One of the main arguments is that this way they don’t have to bother about stock price fluctuations, as their dividend income is safe. Sounds logical, but the long-term performance of three highly celebrated such REITs is simply weak. The worst thing, I am expecting this trend to continue or even to worsen.

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Warm-up for 2025 – better expect the unexpected

Despite having done a combined review-and-outlook Weekly already, I decided to write another one with the focus solely on the outlook for 2025. Over the last weeks, I have gathered new ideas, but also brought my thoughts in order during the days that I took off. There are a few other things I wanted to share. What could the next investing year have in store for us?

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Drill Baby, drill + new research report “Trump Trade 2.0”

One of the expectations for the second term of president-elect Donald Trump is that “dirty” energy will see a huge revival due to pushing back the strict ESG policies of the current administration. Less wind and solar and back to more oil, gas and coal, maybe with nuclear mixed in. However, despite the perception being that Trump is good for oil and gas producers, the above would be exactly the opposite as more supply means lower energy prices. Will we see aggressive drilling and lower energy prices or shall we prepare for something entirely different? All my members receive my latest stock idea, my second “Trump Trade” which should be a big beneficiary either way.

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