Tag Archives: Portfolio

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A look at Magnum Ice Cream after the spin-off

In December 2025, or two months ago, consumer giant Unilever spun off its ice-cream division. Despite still holding ~20% of stock of “The Magnum Ice Cream Company”, as the new entity is called, it will now be responsible on its own. It is a relatively big separation — TMICC has a market cap of 8 billion EUR. Unlike food in general and high-carb and -sugar in particular, ice cream has weathered the challenges of the sector even very well. That’s why I am checking now the stock of The Magnum Ice Cream Company, after full-year results have been published.

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Can this company achieve what hasn’t been done in 20 years?

Everyone is aware of tobacco / cigarette companies and their stocks. For many investors, these are absolute core investments for their stability and high dividends. Against all negativity and a shrinking pool of smokers, tobacco companies managed to survive and thrive. Almost a year ago, my Premium PLUS members received an exclusive report from me with an idea with ties to this sector — but from an entirely different viewpoint. I am making this case public now, discussing the rollercoaster that’s behind us, but also what’s ahead of us.

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Conagra Brands: A “defensive” consumer stock with an aggressive balance sheet

One or the other time, I have published a weekly about consumer stocks. My general view has been for years that these names should be avoided, being it food, beverage, or alcohol stocks, partly also household and cleaning producers (except one name I published a research report about, it’s up +22% over the last five months). Investors who bought blindly solely based on past performance have suffered big losses. While hopes for a turnaround to finally arrive continue to be high, there’s little reason to be overly optimistic. These stocks have lost their status as “defensive” core positions not for one, but for several reasons. The case study of Conagra Brands.

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Are you buying the past with popular ETFs?

This evergreen topic of active vs. passive investing, respectively stock picking vs. investing in index funds via ETFs, is a clash between two absolutely different philosophies. The only thing that’s certain here is that both parties will likely never agree. Both think they’re right and the opposition is wrong. As a passionate stock picker myself, I was triggered by a recent twitter post that in my view has spread a dangerous and misleading message.

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Are we in a stock picker’s market?

Last Friday, the newsletter from the Wall Street Journal hit my inbox. It immediately raised my attention as the core topic read Why This Isn’t a ‘Stock Picker’s Market’. Being a passionate stock picker myself, having little left for both, mainstream stocks and passive investing, I cannot let this statement left untouched for obvious reasons.

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Don’t skip this: Why I‘ve been (+ remain) negative on consumer stocks

I must admit I am surprised how angry people can become when their widows and orphans stocks, mainly consumer staples with reliable dividends, are attacked. It is no secret that I‘ve been writing and commenting negatively about them for some time. And I was right in most cases, as these “safe bets“, which according to the fan base belong in every defensive portfolio, have performed very poorly. I stick to my view that the dividends won’t be safe over time. Once and for all, I am now unveiling why my pessimism likely is warranted.

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Meta going all in – More cracks in the AI Capex bubble

In August 2025, I published my first Weekly fully dedicated to this topic. It became my second most read Weekly so far. I gave it the name “Artificial Intelligence meets natural stupidity – and a potential winner no one is counting on”. I introduced my readers to the growing Capex mania of the Big Tech companies, focussing on Meta, and concluding that Apple might turn out to be the winner thanks to avoiding doing stupid things. While the mania continues at even more extreme levels, the risks for a big burst have only increased.

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Is now the time to rotate into defensive stocks?

This question pops up frequently. Some people ask it more often, others less so. The ongoing bull market started in 2009 and was only briefly interrupted a few times. Every dip gets bought, and on we go. We haven’t seen a recession with an enduring and nasty bear market. Many investors nowadays do not even know what that is – the last one is simply too far away. This Weekly is not about market timing, but about bringing some thoughts in order, cleaning up with a few misbeliefs, and challenging the composition of one’s stock portfolio.

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Side Effect of AI: The Storage Bubble + New Research Report

It is no secret that AI as a topic, its various applications, and in consequence stocks related to AI are receiving much attention. More and more challenge the sustainability of this rapid rise over the last few years, especially as the question of profitability remains unanswered. While everyone is aware of stocks like Nvidia, Oracle or critical suppliers like Micron, as well as multiple AI chatbots, the AI mania has pulled up an otherwise boring sub-segment: storage stocks. Is this justified? All my paid-members receive my latest stock idea: a growing franchise that’s set to dominate the eye care market.

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Post-Exit Returns of my closed cases analyzed

After having closed a stock idea and after some time passes, it is interesting to take another look at it. An obvious question is the return since the exit. More importantly, though, is what can I learn from the exit and from the subsequent movements, up or down? To answer that, I am for the first time ever unveiling all my closed cases that once were member-exclusive stock ideas. With only one exception, I have not re-activated any case. How did they perform post-exit and what do I distill out of this exercise?

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