Tag Archives: Portfolio

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Consumer Tectonics: Why branded FMCG Stocks have lost their edge + new research report

This is a topic I have already written many weeklies about. I haven’t counted them, but it might be the one with the most publications — very likely when adding my twitter posts and comments. Directly about certain struggling, popular consumer stocks and on a higher, aggregated level about the sector as such. I do not get tired of pointing towards what went wrong, but especially cautioning my readers to not fall for seemingly “cheap” consumer stocks. There are deep structural shifts that better not be ignored. Today, I am expanding on this topic, after having studied two eye-opening third-party consumer reports that manifest my negative view about these value traps.

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Europe’s Digital Sovereignty Push

Europe is finally reclaiming digital sovereignty. With the fresh Tech Sovereignty Package and Cloud & AI Development Act, the EU is shifting billions away from U.S. hyperscalers toward trusted European providers. Who benefits? Local companies. A look at IONOS, the German champion combining sticky SMB hosting, sovereign cloud contracts, and built-in AI defenses. Is it the next big winner — or is a better play out there?

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Recycling’s Moment: Turning Problem into Opportunity

Europe’s, and especially Germany’s, industrial machine runs primarily on imported raw materials. A mix of limited domestic deposits and seemingly unlimited regulatory hurdles to exploit factually available resources, has created near-total dependence on foreign supplies for critical inputs like oil, gas, copper, lithium, rare earths, and more. These are essentials for cars, machines, electronics, and even the “green transition”. Recent escalations in the Middle East have amplified supply risks, pushed prices higher, and exposed the fragility of long global chains. Could this be the wake-up call for serious recycling?

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Have popular consumer stocks fallen enough? + new research report

For several years now, investors have been wondering when consumer stocks will finally bottom. Once foundational safeguards across many portfolios and mainly bought for their dividends, and not their share price appreciation (though welcome), defensive consumer stocks have created strong headaches for those who bought at high multiples, ignoring the big fundamental shift that happened (Financial Engineering readers have been warned about). Naturally, at some point, there will be a bottom, though. Are we there yet?

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RTL Group: Is the 15% dividend worth a look?

Everyone knows linear tv is in perpetual decline. Less and less people are watching traditional television — many do not even own a tv anymore. Streaming services have grown in popularity and taken market share. Germany’s biggest private radio and television conglomerate, RTL Group, is in the midst of a turnaround by pushing its own streaming service, but also by expanding sports live broadcasts. What might lead to raising eyebrows is the company has declared a dividend yielding 15%. Could this be the ultimate contrarian play?

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Flight into mergers: the solution for “defensive” consumer companies?

One of my favorite topics (and targets for criticism) for quite some time have been consumer companies. Especially those with a seemingly defensive business model that in the past offered stability in times of market stress. This recipe does not seem to work anymore, though. First and foremost, food companies have experienced an unprecedented bear market that caught many risk-averse investors on the wrong foot. When stocks have fallen significantly, takeover interest arises. Is this a sign that shares of consumer staples have fallen enough?

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Will NextNav multi-bag through terrestrial GPS?

Practically anyone knows and, at least occasionally, uses GPS — the Global Positioning System — to navigate from one point to another. GPS is an American solution that relies solely on a satellite-based connection, but it comes with certain physical limitations. It can also be spoofed or disrupted, potentially leading to massive damages in the economy, but also other areas like safety, emergency, and the military. NextNav is a small company where the core thesis is to bring terrestrial GPS as a backup solution to the U.S. — exclusively and on existing infrastructure. Is the stock a potential multi-bagger in plain sight?

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A look at Magnum Ice Cream after the spin-off

In December 2025, or two months ago, consumer giant Unilever spun off its ice-cream division. Despite still holding ~20% of stock of “The Magnum Ice Cream Company”, as the new entity is called, it will now be responsible on its own. It is a relatively big separation — TMICC has a market cap of 8 billion EUR. Unlike food in general and high-carb and -sugar in particular, ice cream has weathered the challenges of the sector even very well. That’s why I am checking now the stock of The Magnum Ice Cream Company, after full-year results have been published.

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Can this company achieve what hasn’t been done in 20 years?

Everyone is aware of tobacco / cigarette companies and their stocks. For many investors, these are absolute core investments for their stability and high dividends. Against all negativity and a shrinking pool of smokers, tobacco companies managed to survive and thrive. Almost a year ago, my Premium PLUS members received an exclusive report from me with an idea with ties to this sector — but from an entirely different viewpoint. I am making this case public now, discussing the rollercoaster that’s behind us, but also what’s ahead of us.

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Conagra Brands: A “defensive” consumer stock with an aggressive balance sheet

One or the other time, I have published a weekly about consumer stocks. My general view has been for years that these names should be avoided, being it food, beverage, or alcohol stocks, partly also household and cleaning producers (except one name I published a research report about, it’s up +22% over the last five months). Investors who bought blindly solely based on past performance have suffered big losses. While hopes for a turnaround to finally arrive continue to be high, there’s little reason to be overly optimistic. These stocks have lost their status as “defensive” core positions not for one, but for several reasons. The case study of Conagra Brands.

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