Tag Archives: Portfolio

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Post the Volatility crash – next leg up? + new stock idea to benefit

Isn’t it amazing how forgetful market participants can be? Not even a full month ago, sentiment was as if the (financial) world were about to implode. Just a week later the panic-induced market losses were already gained back and three weeks later the crowd is smelling new all-time highs again. What I’m concerned about is expectations seem to be that nothing unfortunate will happen again. I have become a bit concerned, as complacency seems to be EXTRAORDINARILY high. In such an environment, small shifts are enough to cause a market panic – there are a few signs to be aware of. And a new stock idea for my members to capitalize on that, too.

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Flow Traders – it was right to cut the loss

My longer time readers and members will be familiar with the Dutch company Flow Traders as it once was one of my stock ideas (my very first report I published since launching my blog). In late September 2023, now ten months ago, however, I closed this case at a small loss of –10% (including dividends). It was not an easy decision as this was more an unconventional stock idea (basically a hedge against a market crash). Looking back, this was absolutely the correct decision to cut the small loss, because it would be a bigger hole now…

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Breaking up to unlock value + new research report

While I do not agree that the market is efficient all the time, I also do not agree that it is completely inefficient. Especially in today’s world where information is more accessible than ever before. The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle. Clear cases with little surprises and high transparency with lots of attention tend to be valued fairly or even overvalued, especially when sentiment is positive. However, when something is overlooked and / or less transparent, respectively a bit more complicated and even hated, there’s a chance to find hidden value.

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Investing in oligopolies isn’t always a winning strategy

Everyone knows that market concentration leads to less competition and in turn to more powerful entities within this group. Such oligopolies by definition should allow the respective companies to achieving strong results and high margins due to pricing power, but also where applicable economies of scale. In reality, however, not every sector or company offers automatically a good stock investment, even when factually operating in an oligopoly.

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Checkmate – more kings to have on the radar for dividend cuts

My longer time readers know that dividend cuts have been one of my favorite topics. It is of high importance for me to ring the bell in order to help investors get more cautious with their investments. There are no risk-free stocks. The same applies to proclaimed “bond-proxy” dividend stocks, no matter which useless title they hold in connection with their dividend series. Today, I’m presenting two more kings I have on my radar for a cut.

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The untold risks of average returns

This headline might sound confusing at first sight, but behind it is a topic worth thinking about. As one understands what’s behind “average returns”, a portfolio check-up could be appropriate, especially if one is overweight in stocks with past above average performances paired with high valuations. A few thoughts on risk-adjusted investing.

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Buying companies after dividend cuts + new research report

What sounds crazy at first sight, indeed is rather an interesting strategy to think about. Sounds crazy, as almost everyone is talking about higher dividends? Let me make the case for dividend cuts! My next stock idea from my upcoming research report fits exactly into this scheme.

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Quitting at a loss to free up capital and the mind

Today, I’m writing about one of my (former) best stock ideas which didn’t play out as initially thought. Besides describing the case and the reason that led me to throw in the towel, I also want to use it to show why it’s important to regularly go over one’s portfolio and to cut the weeds.

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Why I don’t like diversification

Buying either parts of or even entire other companies is a common way for businesses to grow. This inorganic route though is often used for empire building (higher salaries and bonuses), sometimes even to hide own problems inside the core business (presenting an external growth story) and more often than not destroying shareholder value by overpaying for the targets. Today, I’m discussing a company that is losing through diversification.

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Why it makes no sense to copy Warren Buffett

This is a topic I’ve wanted to write about for a while. Those stock pickers who decide not to migrate to the camp of chartists, tee leaf readers or other witchcrafts, will likely join the group of value investors. In this context, the name of Warren Buffett must not miss. Many investors claim to emulate his strategy, others try to seek inspiration which stocks to buy. Today, I will show that both are delusions.

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