With the publication of my stock idea to play the uranium bull market in late-2022, I purposefully went against the groupthink. Instead of picking a uranium miner for my members – whether actively in production or just restarting / developing a mine, my choice was a very defensive one. Instead of just looking at the potential for multi-bagger returns in a one-sided, biased way, I saw many more risks in this sector. Today, I am taking a look back, discussing some performance numbers and what happened at a retail investors’ darling from Australia.
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Silvercrest buyout – is Discovery Silver the next in line?
Last Friday it was announced that my former silver mining stock idea for my members, Silvercrest Metals, will be acquired. Great on one side, as it confirms through my research work to have found a great company. I had laid out that Silvercrest might be an acquisition target one day due to its high-quality mine in Mexico. Bad on the other, as I obviously closed my case too early at “only” +85.1%, leaving some performance on the table. There’s another interesting silver miner in Mexico, sitting not less than on the world’s biggest undeveloped deposit. Is this an even better Silvercrest in the making?
Continue readingInvesting in oligopolies isn’t always a winning strategy
Everyone knows that market concentration leads to less competition and in turn to more powerful entities within this group. Such oligopolies by definition should allow the respective companies to achieving strong results and high margins due to pricing power, but also where applicable economies of scale. In reality, however, not every sector or company offers automatically a good stock investment, even when factually operating in an oligopoly.
Continue readingWhat most investors get wrong about gold stocks + new research report
There are three things the majority of investors fail to understand with regards to gold stocks. The first is gold is NOT THE hedge against inflation and thus gold stocks not even better hedges. The second is with higher gold prices, NOT ALL gold stocks go up exponentially. The third is the evergreen that all gold stocks are heavily undervalued by the stupid market and great buying opportunities. I am going to take these beliefs apart. My Premium PLUS members receive on top my best gold stock idea after I have already had a golden hand with my silver pick (for all my members). If you read until the end, I have a small gift for you.
Continue readingNamibia – the new and better Guyana? + new research report
Although ever since the predictions and paroles have been that the world is running out of oil soon, from time to time big new discoveries have been made. Brazil has vast known reserves that could last for 50 years. Offshore the coast of neighboring Guyana, a reservoir of an estimated double digit billion barrels of oil equivalent is being already extracted. There’s a good chance, Namibia, a country in Southwest-Africa, could become the “next Guyana” – maybe even a better one!
Continue readingThe untold risks of average returns
This headline might sound confusing at first sight, but behind it is a topic worth thinking about. As one understands what’s behind “average returns”, a portfolio check-up could be appropriate, especially if one is overweight in stocks with past above average performances paired with high valuations. A few thoughts on risk-adjusted investing.
Continue readingBlackRock: ESG harmful for business – hated stocks poised to come back?
One of the big investment topics of this decade could be the return of those neglected and hated sectors that did not fit into boldly advertised ESG policies. Dirty, careless, only return focussed, etc. Yet, that’s not the same as not needed or replaceable, not to mention affordability. On the other hand, you have greenwashing, higher costs of living and ousting of non-liberal, more conservative customers with silly messages and acts. BlackRock is writing it and the market is speaking. Listen.
Continue readingTime to look at gas + new research report
Energy in general is a hotly debated and controversial topic. But when it comes to natural gas, it can become extreme, especially if you mix in liquefied natural gas – or in short: LNG. For long, I have been sitting on the sidelines regarding this market. But I feel now is the time to not only write a Weekly, but also a research report for my members about it – as a hedge from a European perspective. As a bonus, I estimate a 10% dividend yield to be announced next week from my latest pick.
Continue readingNot all that glitters is gold – a critical look at Barrick Gold
Everyone who engages with gold mining companies, very early stumbles upon Barrick Gold. It’s a household name and a darling of many. Even though the company describes itself as “world class”, the performance of the underlying business has been terrible – no understatement. There are so many myths about gold, silver and miners that I want to clean up with another such. It is not always the go-to strategy to just pick a household name, assuming size is all that matters.
Continue readingWhy I am skeptical about the “safe copper bet”
Who hasn’t heard of it, yet? The price of copper, together with the respective miners, can only see one way: up, up and upper! This thesis is based on the ongoing electrification of our society. Where there is electricity, copper is needed. More electricity demand = more copper demand, right? What sounds plausible, has some weak points to it. Actually, I am even skeptical that this will play out in the way that the majority thinks, at the very least in the short to medium term.
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