Due to the current circumstances, in this edition I am writing a more holistic and strategic weekly. It differs from what I am else publishing. Instead of discussing one concrete stock and aiming to be more or less precisely right with my directional call, my focus here lies on sharing my thoughts. Some of them might be in an early stage, necessitating more research, but also a wait-and-see observative approach. I am giving insights into sectors and ideas I have regarding where to have an eye on, but also where caution might be the better choice.

Summary and key takeaways from today’s Weekly
– The recent events and ongoing conflicts necessitate a recalibration, or at least a serious reassessment, of one’s portfolio composition.
– Gold, contrary to popular belief, should be viewed differently.
– On stocks, I am sharing many ideas and thoughts. But my members receive the full package exclusively.

Since late February 2026, or roughly three weeks, we have an entirely new setup.

Instead of low, or say manageable, commodity and especially energy prices, the reality is now exactly the opposite. As we’ve seen in 2022, this can lead to a nasty bear market due to exploding inflation that barely anyone had on their radar.

While it sounds like an easy formula to follow, in practice it is much more complex.

It is not just energy, even though energy is front running and affecting many sectors and areas. In 2022, we saw massively higher energy prices, pushing inflation, and leading to an end of the unprecedented zero or near-zero interest rate policies in those countries that pursed them.

Those who were unprepared got seriously wracked.

Most sectors got kicked in the buttocks, especially those with a higher interest rate sensitivity. Think of REITs, cyclical tech stocks, most of those unprofitable entities full of dreams and promises but nothing else, and of course everything that had too high leverage on the assumption cost of debt would stay near zero forever.

Energy stocks did very well, obviously.

So did some other sectors that were directly affected by supply shocks like certain crops or fertilizers — which, however, in the case of the latter also ties back to nat gas as an input variable. The saving grace and pretend inflation hedge of many, gold, unfortunately followed broader markets, experiencing a hefty decline of around 30% during 2022.

So, what to do now — and maybe more importantly, what not to do?

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^{per 18 March 2026 market close – since August 2022}

A look into my brain

Without too much of an intro, in this weekly, I am shooting around a bit.

I have no specific target. My intention is to point towards likely developments on one side (based on the current status quo that can change any day, or get even worse), and to briefly discuss potential consequences from an investment standpoint.

Front and center is to avoid running into a disaster, risking permanent loss of capital on a large scale. Now is not the time to be brave, or worse, act in good belief.

Cautious and adaptive in my view is the better choice.

Being prepared in the best way possible for all potential outcomes, picking what is the least affected, what might benefit, and where to stay away to not let hope, luck or greed prevail.

In a nutshell, I am expecting a resurgence of inflation, and as of now, it to remain sticky, massively impacting economic growth, leading to shrinkage and even crippling some economies that are extremely dependent on energy imports.

I do not believe that we’ll see an exact copy of the investment year 2022.

One of the reasons is that we are coming from a weaker economical starting point with many consumers already being hit hard and financially strained, respectively not having fully recovered again. Add to this that many companies already announced mass layoffs, while higher cost of debt and absolute debt levels have gone up. Further, it looks like critical energy infrastructure is targeted and damaged that cannot be easily rerouted, repaired, or replaced — permanent or long-lasting impacts.

Besides the most obvious investment, enough toilet paper (my German readers understand this), I hope the following brings some valuable input and food for thought, so that you won’t be left behind with bread crumbs.

With this, let’s get started.

First, in times of stress and insecurity, most investors are drawn to gold.

Personally, I have no idea where this annoying fetish comes from. It might be a mix of misbelief and gold-bug-propaganda induced brain washing. Longer-time readers of this blog know that I am neither a gold (or silver) hater, nor an evangelist.

My members in the past even had a silver and even two gold stock ideas from me on their desks. All three of them brought us lots of joy from a return perspective, two netting more than 80%, and one even more than 200%. All in relatively short periods.

All these cases are closed as of writing and publishing this weekly.

I am trying to be a neutral observer, putting pieces together without emotions.

What is objectively clear is these metals often have disappointed those who see them as the holy grail. In my view, one is doing better not believing in this nonsense that gold and silver always rise on the back of perpetual currency debasement, inflation, and whatever — but when they fall, it’s said to be outright and evil manipulation.

Better forget that.

Also better don’t compare today to the 1930s depression because currencies were then pegged to gold (at least those that held the peg), which since 1971 universally is not the case anymore. Gold switched sides and today is a commodity trading against currencies, while back then it had a monetary function — exactly the opposite.

Important: I am not saying, it’s just a commodity.

But it works and behaves differently.

What is evident, is during times of inflation, the development is rather arbitrary.

Below, I marked the 2022 inflation period and the last months. I think the majority will agree with me that we had an inflationary shock in 2022, unheard of for decades in size and scope, and that expectations now point in the same direction (if not worse), if the latest conflict isn’t resolved immediately.

While gold bugs will pull the same old rabbit out of the hat and be wrong again — some evil manipulation clearly must be at work — the reality is closer to the fact that the USD appreciated against most currencies.

My question in between: if there was indeed manipulation, why haven’t “they” capped gold at 2,000 or 3,000 USD, but “let” it run hot, intervening only now? It makes no sense.

There’s something else.

The DXY, a basket of currencies against the USD, noticeably shot up in 2022.

Does anyone for example remember when the EUR fell below parity against the USD?

Since the Middle East conflict began, DXY started to rise again, reaching temporarily a new multi-month high. When it ticks up more, blasting decisively through 100, you can almost certainly plan for lower, not higher, gold and silver prices. At least for the short- to mid-term.

And for risk off on the markets, but that’s another story.

The relationship is straightforward.

These commodities are priced in USD and a stronger USD makes them cheaper, because they compete against each other so to speak. The USD is strengthening because capital worldwide is fleeing to the US, as counterintuitive as it might sound with the latter being directly involved into the current conflict.

But first, the US is energy self-sufficient, unlike Europe or Asia (not preventing or eliminating, but lowering the impacts of a potential energy crisis), and second the US has the biggest bond market, an own and freely convertible currency, and the biggest and most liquid equity market to park serious money.

It’s THE save haven — despite the widespread hatred. Always ask yourself, where should capital else flee? You need size AND liquidity without restrictions. There is no second such market.

Should this flip one day, we’ll need to reassess.

But for now, it is what it is.

Which doesn’t mean that gold cannot rise together with the USD, the same like oil has risen now together with the USD, despite being a commodity and being priced in it like gold.

When confidence collapses massively and the main motivation will not be to raise liquidity asap like in a liquidity shock scenario (where gold gets sold off, too — see 2008), but to put capital into gold by serious money, then gold can and likely will rise together with the USD.

In the more recent past, this happened between 2018 and 2020, when the first trade war with China occurred — gold and the USD rose simultaneously. There was no inflation at that time. Looking back more into the past, this was also the case when the financial panic hit in late 2008 to early 2009.

The DXY rose from a level of 86 to 106 within months. In a time, when the FED for the first time put interest rates practically to zero (in several steps). And despite the US having been the epicenter of the housing bubble.

It was worse and more severe elsewhere — capital fled to the safe haven.

By the way, this was not an inflationary, but a highly deflationary event.

So, long-term gold should do well, assuming large-scale conflicts drag on and / or a financial shock hits the fan. Private equity needs to be watched. Sovereign budgets need to be watched. Even energy-intensive companies need to be watched.

As long as there won’t be a “normal” and calm environment without economical and / or military concerns, gold and silver in my view will likely continue to rise. But, be prepared for a strong correction, despite inflation what it looks like surging.

Or rather because of it, when at the same time the DXY climbs higher again.

Yesterday, producer prices, a precursor to consumer inflation, came in higher than expected, pressuring markets — and sending the USD / DXY higher.

And that was in a period before the Middle East events even started.

Some attentive readers might ask now:

Why have I then sold all my gold and silver stocks (see here) when I am long-term “optimistic”? Easy answer. Spot metals and mining stocks are not the same. While they of course look like trading directionally in the same way, investors should never forget that miners are stocks.

My decision was due to valuation concerns.

Too much optimism baked in.

Since I closed my last cases, spot gold went up from around 4,500 USD to more than 5,500 USD at the top (now c. 4,700–4,800 USD). Both my former gold mining picks are down, one —9%, the other even noticeably more by c. 30% — so, it was no mistake to take a breather after phenomenal runs.

Despite spot gold being a bit higher compared to when I closed these ideas. I’d view a correction rather as a buying opportunity than suspecting a mysterious conspiracy.

Coming now to what has driven the markets over the last five to six years.

The big tech stocks, being called by changing acronyms or just the Magnificent Seven in the more recent past.

Or the Bagnificent Seven, as I just read.

And this is what I expect in very brief to continue.

I have written in the past about accounting gimmicks (see here and here) and debt problems (see here). This seems to be now only the tip of the iceberg.

Especially those businesses that are heavily reliant on advertising sales like Google and Facebook should have a tough time. Ads are extremely sensitive to economic backdrops as obviously those who pay the ads have tighter budgets, when consumers become more cautious with their spending.

But also data centers are at risk.

First, data centers need electricity. That’s clear. Energy supply shocks can affect them negatively. But there’s another aspect many do not talk about. Data centers also need heavy cooling which is done with helium. Helium is a byproduct, respectively extract from natural gas.

And helium is irreplaceable. You cannot say like if there’s no steel, I’ll use aluminum. Or if there’s not enough copper, I’ll pick silver or aluminum for similar physical properties (though entirely different costs).

Unfortunately, Qatar is one of the world’s largest helium producers and it has gone entirely offline now.

The Straight of Hormus is practically closed and on top Qatar’s LNG site is reported to have been hit. It shares its field with Iran, which operates on the other side. And this part is reported to have been hit either.

Depending on the severity, a huge supply shock is not unrealistic.

The US is the world’s biggest helium producer. Russia and Algeria also produce significant amounts and can export, at least theoretically. But this won’t be close to enough to fill Qatar’s void, the more so in light of ambitious expansion plans of those AI plays. So, we are facing a potential pull-the-plug moment, which could be a shock for these stocks.

Even if not (unlikely in my view), the aggressive AI and data center investments raise more and more questions regarding profitability. With cash flows potentially going negative and some companies raising debt aggressively (see here and here), in times of uncertainty, investors will hardly like that.

On the other hand, if they cut investments, this will put an end to the AI hype — and crater Nvidia (ISIN: US67066G1040, ticker: NVDA), the world’s largest public company.

So, all variants do not seem attractive.

If inflation indeed comes and stays, you can easily skip consumer discretionary stocks. People won’t buy what they don’t need. That’s an easy call.

Let’s have an eye on “defensive” consumer stocks.

Historically, an easy call, as this group worked like a bond proxy, paying dividends and moving little in times of stress. Longer-time readers know how I have been criticizing exactly this sector for having been over-levered, carrying inflated legacy assets on their balance sheets, and operating businesses of our grandparents, while stocks still continue to be too expensive — important: for what they offer.

The problem is, decades ago was not the same playing field like it is now.

Fresh from yesterday, General Mills (ISIN: US3703341046, ticker: GIS) reported another set of weak results. This drama does not seem to want to end for pretend defensive and cautious investors. How often have I read that at 3% the dividend was solid. At 4% great. At 5% a no-brainer. At 6% the opportunity of the lifetime.

We are sitting at 6.3% now and in my view a cut cannot be ruled out, even though probably not being around the corner in the short term.

GIS reported another sales decrease, on an absolute and on a divesture-adjusted, organic basis. People do not want to buy this overpriced, unhealthy stuff anymore like in the past. On top, input cost inflation hasn’t vanished, but it remained. In the past, this was solved through price hikes when the economy did well.

Now, people don’t care about brands when budgets are tight and the future is uncertain.

If people need to eat no matter what lies ahead, why are volumes falling in nearly all categories on an organic level, with pricing being under pressure, too?

Even the highly celebrated pets segment lost 6% in volumes (below, I just marked the quarterly comparison, but this holds true for the first nine months of the fiscal year, too).

Accordingly, the stock fell close to its ten-year low, maybe even a bit below that mark.

I have been smiled at for saying that these stocks are neither buys nor cheap — nor defensive. They are structurally under extreme pressure and their brands are, while not worthless of course, with a high likelihood not worth what is carried on the balance sheets. See my weekly about aggressive balance sheets in pretend defensive businesses (see here).

It must have been a painful ride down from almost 90 USD — when conditions were still relatively modest with inflation easing from the 2021 and 2022 highs, and wages slowly catching up a bit.

Now imagine what happens when input costs explode again.

This applies to most such “high-profile” names.

Forget these garbage tips that you should buy what you know and buy yourself. These companies will be again pressed against the wall with higher inflation. Private-label brands will take even more market share from them.

Oil as of writing is up 80–90% year to date. This will not affect any supply chains?

Further, I would not assume that the dividends are safe. Historically high yields more often than not tend to be major traps in anticipation of looming cuts. With the previous problems not solved and new ones coming, how can one be optimistic here?

At some point, even these stocks could be interesting — but not now.

I am a proponent of the view that in every market environment, there are appropriate stocks to own.

After having pulled out sectors and names I would not touch — what would I or do I touch, instead?

Maybe, most stocks can fall very short-term in case of a mega panic. Cash can be of course a tactical position. But it is not wise throughout a sticky and lasting inflationary period due to losing purchasing power.

Beyond a few weeks, usually there’s almost always something that rises.

Mega panics are ultra rare.

And they do not last forever.

Sounds like a good recipe?

I have presented my members many ideas, primarily from sectors like energy (obvious in the current environment), Pharma and biotech, and a mix of special situations as well as ultra-low valuations.

While energy is self-explanatory and ideas like Vista Energy (ISIN: US92837L1098, ticker: VIST), which is up around 170% since my initial report came out, being evergreens, there were a few other picks worth discussing.

In early 2024, two years ago, I published a free weekly, describing the fragile new energy infrastructure with a focus on Europe, that is now creating headaches. My members received my idea to have a look at Equinor (ISIN: NO0010096985, ticker: EQNR), the Norwegian blue chip large cap, far from anything extreme speculative.

Including dividends, the position is now approaching +60%, after having been a pain in the ass for almost two years. But the stock was cheap, the balance sheet clean, it paid dividends for waiting, and bought back stock aggressively at the bottom.

All the while the downside in my view was limited — though, we were down temporarily in the double digits.

Investing shall not be exciting, it shall deliver results.

Another very interesting case is one that I have dug out for a second time only last week. In the first run, my members and I netted +35% in less than a year between late 2022 and mid 2023. But facing weak and falling commodity prices, I closed the case back then.

But we are back after almost three years.

The thing is, higher oil and gas prices are obvious.

What received attention only at a second look were fertilizers. Admittedly, I wasn’t onboard from day one either. It was not necessary.

But what is necessary to know is the Middle East is also a major exporter of fertilizers.

There are several fertilizers.

One of them is where my reactivated pick made its acquisition.

It needs nat gas as the core input ingredient to produce it. Thanks to being on the other side of the globe with next-door access to cheap booming nat gas (contractually safe low prices for almost two years), higher fertilizer prices practically drop straight to the bottom line now.

And this is only part of my thesis, as the company has other inflationary-sensitive segments that are ripe for a comeback.

A problem investors do not want to have is having banked on the right commodity, but being struck in the wrong geography.

See the example above — gas supply disruptions impact an otherwise logical beneficiary.

The same by the way for a case I just recently closed.

Isn’t this stupid in light of disrupted energy flows?

It depends on the view.

My assessment is that the setup has flipped from initially priced like a hopeless case (though delivering operationally) to a high-risk endeavor. Government intervention started and more seems only a question of time, while excessive and painful windfall taxes on energy profits loom around the corner.

This is uncertainty with potentially devastating outcomes. Even if no more government intervention happened, this case would not fully benefit — windfall taxes.

In the UK, windfall taxes have been extended, threatening energy supply. The stocks now jumped in the light of higher oil and European gas prices, too, okay. But why deal with such problematic cases when there are other choices without this ballast?

Risk off, very clear.

Especially given that I have multiple energy-related ideas still active.

You have seen the headline about the fertilizer producer. This can also happen to oil and / or gas or other commodity producers that are sitting at the wrong place, absolutely.

The other big second pillar so to speak among my picks is the Pharma / biotech / medtech sector. However, of course not the usual suspects seemingly everyone has in their portfolios at rich valuations and limited growth.

One idea I presented last year, and also wrote about later in a free weekly (see here), remains Achieve Life Sciences (ISIN: US0044685008, ticker: ACHV).

This is one of my Premium PLUS ideas.

I am discussing it here briefly to show you my thoughts. This stock has practically nothing to do or no relevant correlation to the overall market. No energy dependence, no fertilizers, the potential future business is just in the U.S.

If the drug gets approved, a noticeable rerating of the stock is likely in the cards.

Irrelevant whether the S&P 500 stands a few hundred point lower or higher.

There are more such ideas active among my member-exclusive cases.

Finally, my latest idea for Premium members (i.e. all members).

In January, I pointed towards egg prices in the U.S. By luck or chance, I fetched what it looks like the bottom of the cycle. Egg prices were, and still are, too cheap.

I discussed an egg producer for my members. The stock is currently up more than 16%, temporarily it was more than 20%. With a huge net cash position on the balance sheet, this is a super anti-mainstream and anti-cyclical idea that can easily rise on broader down days.

One of few food stocks where I am comfortable with.

In closing, I hope this weekly gives an overview what’s currently in my head and how I think about acting on it — and how not.

Doing what everyone else does is likely not wise.

Thinking and looking where others don’t, paired with ideas that either directly benefit in some shape and form, or simply are uncorrelated to politics and the market, in my view makes for the best mix to structure a portfolio.

And likely some tactical cash to stay flexible.

Conclusion

The recent events and ongoing conflicts necessitate a recalibration, or at least a serious reassessment, of one’s portfolio composition.

Gold, contrary to popular belief, should be viewed differently.

On stocks, I am sharing many ideas and thoughts. But my members receive the full package exclusively.

By becoming a Premium or Premium PLUS Member, you get instant access to all my already published research reports as well as several updates.

Likewise, you qualify for eight, respectively four more exclusive reports with my best investment ideas plus updates on the featured businesses over the next twelve months.