Category Archives: investment climate / big picture

Posted on by

General Mills: The Dividend (sh)could get crushed

Last week, I discussed the case of Flowers Foods, the largest publicly listed bakery in the US. The company has cut its “safe” dividend for the first time ever, unlike many other consumer staples that are still reluctant to do so — despite the market pressing them. Circumstances have changed, and wise managements better cut now, instead of denying reality any longer. Another candidate where the “safe” dividend might not be so safe is General Mills. The company reported another set of disastrous results. Although the payout is technically still covered, I have doubts it will be kept at this level.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Flowers Foods: What now after the dividend cut?

Many investors experience a dividend cut negatively. Understandable on the surface, as shareholders will pocket less passive income. However, from a business perspective, it can be the absolute right move. Not only that, it can even be the catalyst that marks the bottom of a long and painful share-price decline. Flowers Foods sliced its payout into thinner pieces — the stock, however, did not crash. It surged. Is now the time to have a look at the stock?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Big Spirits Stocks: From Premiumization to Mass Market?

For years I have been outspokenly negative about alcohol stocks, mainly the big three Western spirits companies. My criticism circled around managements’ constant denial of the new reality, over-expansion, high debt loads, what I call “the dividend burden”, and still-excessive valuations — despite huge, unprecedented share price drops. With this view, for long I was paddling against the consensus. Naturally, at some point these stocks should become interesting again. I don’t think we are there, yet. But something is changing.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Learnings from the 5 Cases I Closed so far in 2026

From time to time, besides discussing new ideas in my exclusive research reports that I publish for my members, I also end coverage for one or the other active case. It can be for various reasons. There’s no firm scheme behind it. So far this year, I have what I call “closed” five ideas. In this weekly, I am uncovering these names, reviewing case by case my motivations for choosing them to be featured in my reports, but also my reasons for each of the closings as well as key learnings.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Consumer Tectonics: Why branded FMCG Stocks have lost their edge + new research report

This is a topic I have already written many weeklies about. I haven’t counted them, but it might be the one with the most publications — very likely when adding my twitter posts and comments. Directly about certain struggling, popular consumer stocks and on a higher, aggregated level about the sector as such. I do not get tired of pointing towards what went wrong, but especially cautioning my readers to not fall for seemingly “cheap” consumer stocks. There are deep structural shifts that better not be ignored. Today, I am expanding on this topic, after having studied two eye-opening third-party consumer reports that manifest my negative view about these value traps.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Europe’s Digital Sovereignty Push

Europe is finally reclaiming digital sovereignty. With the fresh Tech Sovereignty Package and Cloud & AI Development Act, the EU is shifting billions away from U.S. hyperscalers toward trusted European providers. Who benefits? Local companies. A look at IONOS, the German champion combining sticky SMB hosting, sovereign cloud contracts, and built-in AI defenses. Is it the next big winner — or is a better play out there?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Recycling’s Moment: Turning Problem into Opportunity

Europe’s, and especially Germany’s, industrial machine runs primarily on imported raw materials. A mix of limited domestic deposits and seemingly unlimited regulatory hurdles to exploit factually available resources, has created near-total dependence on foreign supplies for critical inputs like oil, gas, copper, lithium, rare earths, and more. These are essentials for cars, machines, electronics, and even the “green transition”. Recent escalations in the Middle East have amplified supply risks, pushed prices higher, and exposed the fragility of long global chains. Could this be the wake-up call for serious recycling?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Beiersdorf: German consumer-darling on the sale rack?

The stock of the “Nivea” company for long has been an unspectacular, almost quiet compounder inside the Dax. Barely anyone talked about it, except maybe in the context of a mean management that was reluctant to raise the dividend for many years. Shares nonetheless performed well, offering a defensive and stable pick with solid returns for investors. Unfortunately, this has come to a spectacular end — shares have lost 50% from their high. Is this now a good opportunity to load up?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Have popular consumer stocks fallen enough? + new research report

For several years now, investors have been wondering when consumer stocks will finally bottom. Once foundational safeguards across many portfolios and mainly bought for their dividends, and not their share price appreciation (though welcome), defensive consumer stocks have created strong headaches for those who bought at high multiples, ignoring the big fundamental shift that happened (Financial Engineering readers have been warned about). Naturally, at some point, there will be a bottom, though. Are we there yet?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Flight into mergers: the solution for “defensive” consumer companies?

One of my favorite topics (and targets for criticism) for quite some time have been consumer companies. Especially those with a seemingly defensive business model that in the past offered stability in times of market stress. This recipe does not seem to work anymore, though. First and foremost, food companies have experienced an unprecedented bear market that caught many risk-averse investors on the wrong foot. When stocks have fallen significantly, takeover interest arises. Is this a sign that shares of consumer staples have fallen enough?

Continue reading →