Category Archives: investment climate / big picture

Posted on by

Will Big Oil have to cut their dividends if oil prices stay low?

Over the last years many energy companies made gigantic windfall profits which allowed them to ramp up their shareholder distributions. Dividends and buybacks are often the reasons for investments in big energy companies. Since the high in 2022, oil prices have almost halved, though. With the main driver oil now trading around 60–65 USD, the question arises whether these generous payouts are sustainable. Short answer: no, if we see a longer period of low energy prices. What does this mean for the Supermajors and their investors? And how do I handle this unfavorable environment? Is it maybe even advantageous for my setup?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Searching for recession- and tariff-protection

Like I hinted in my outlook for 2025, this year indeed so far has proved to be rather volatile. Sentiment can change almost on a day-to-day basis, depending on political announcements. Even wild swings of 7–10% in just one day are not impossible. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to think about more defensive stocks, assuming the tariff circus continues and / or a recession hits soon. There are the usual suspects which can do the job. But I wouldn’t expect too much upside. My members have already received my next stock idea – one of the most defensive, recession- and tariff-unaffected businesses available – paired with decent upside.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Afterword to the recent market crash

As irony and destiny wanted it, with the publication of my last Weekly, markets crashed down hard, effectively erasing much of the gains of the last twelve months. Of course, it wasn’t my publication that ignited the fireworks. I had written my Weekly shortly prior to the tariff announcement which was the catalyst that sent markets worldwide lower in fear of a major economic contraction. Big calls for another 1929 depression and 1987 Black Monday crash evaporated, at least for now. Then yesterday, one of the best days on Wall Street EVER. What to make out of this?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Q1 is over – how hard was the correction for you?

Depending on your personal portfolio composition, the just closed first quarter 2025 might show an entirely different performance. While scrolling through twitter it reads almost like a hefty crash with big losses is behind us, the reality is on an aggregate level not much has happened so far. Even more contradictory, the current correction only involved certain sectors and individual stocks. This is the sector rotation I have written about in the past several times. What to draw out from it for our portfolios?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Talos Energy – a strong buy trading 40% below NAV? + new stock idea

I like simplicity – in life in general, but especially in the context of stock investing. When analyzing commodity, respectively energy stocks, a good first approach to assess the valuation is to compare the current price with the net asset value (NAV). Talos Energy, an American offshore operator in the Gulf, looks like a promising deal. The company is a low-cost operator and trades (at least) 40% below its NAV. Supported by an active acquisition history as well as Mexico’s richest man, the company’s enterprise value has risen while oil is flat. Is this the window of opportunity to buy into this company while it’s still cheap?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part II – Alcohol stocks

After my take on food stocks, in today’s second part of the series I am having a look at another failed group of consumer darlings – alcohol producers. These “sin stocks”, similar to tobacco, have been seen for long as one of the best ideas to play defense. Especially in crises, it was said people would smoke and drink even more. The only difference: valuations. While most tobacco stocks today are deep-value plays, alcohol stocks for a long time have had rather rich multiples. Frustrating for those who only looked at the perceived quality of the companies, but not their risks. With many alcohol companies trading substantially below their highs, is now the time to get active?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part I – Food stocks

Weren’t we told stocks of consumer staples should be cornerstones of every mindfully assembled portfolio? With their defensive business models, predictable demand (one needs to eat, drink, clean, etc.), strong brands, consistent dividends and long histories as proof of being in business for a reason, this sounds like a no-brainer. Winning by not losing, everything else is too speculative, isn’t it? However, over the last five and even ten years, exactly this group of stocks has disappointed extremely. Many are in the red and even factoring in their dividends the performance was abysmal. Are valuations now cheap enough to take a bite?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Halozyme Therapeutics – an overlooked bargain? + new stock idea

Feeling uncomfortable with everybody’s darling stocks, my motivation was and still is to find stock ideas with what I call “an own life”. With that I am looking for companies with internal triggers or catalysts which can influence shares positively (almost) regardless of what broader markets do. While I do not believe (for now) in a hefty stock market crash which pushes down all equities, I cannot rule out a nosebleed correction in the tech sector. In search of uncorrelated stock ideas, I spent some time on the Pharma / biotech sector. Halozyme Therapeutics is a seemingly lowly-valued stock. My Premium PLUS members have already received my latest potential-multi-bagger stock idea in an exclusive research report to kick off the year 2025.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Berkshire Hathaway – an inferior stock pick now

Risking to be accused of blasphemy with this Weekly by one or the other Buffett-fan, nonetheless I decided to have a look at the stock of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett’s investment holding has achieved a tremendous performance and beaten the markets by a wide margin since its inception. However, this was not the case in the younger past. Growth constraints are one reason. But there are quite a few other aspects that do not make this conglomerate appear to be the ultimate must-own stock.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Warm-up for 2025 – better expect the unexpected

Despite having done a combined review-and-outlook Weekly already, I decided to write another one with the focus solely on the outlook for 2025. Over the last weeks, I have gathered new ideas, but also brought my thoughts in order during the days that I took off. There are a few other things I wanted to share. What could the next investing year have in store for us?

Continue reading →