Category Archives: resources / supply side economics

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Drill Baby, drill + new research report “Trump Trade 2.0”

One of the expectations for the second term of president-elect Donald Trump is that “dirty” energy will see a huge revival due to pushing back the strict ESG policies of the current administration. Less wind and solar and back to more oil, gas and coal, maybe with nuclear mixed in. However, despite the perception being that Trump is good for oil and gas producers, the above would be exactly the opposite as more supply means lower energy prices. Will we see aggressive drilling and lower energy prices or shall we prepare for something entirely different? All my members receive my latest stock idea, my second “Trump Trade” which should be a big beneficiary either way.

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Why I continue to avoid uranium miners

With the publication of my stock idea to play the uranium bull market in late-2022, I purposefully went against the groupthink. Instead of picking a uranium miner for my members – whether actively in production or just restarting / developing a mine, my choice was a very defensive one. Instead of just looking at the potential for multi-bagger returns in a one-sided, biased way, I saw many more risks in this sector. Today, I am taking a look back, discussing some performance numbers and what happened at a retail investors’ darling from Australia.

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Silvercrest buyout – is Discovery Silver the next in line?

Last Friday it was announced that my former silver mining stock idea for my members, Silvercrest Metals, will be acquired. Great on one side, as it confirms through my research work to have found a great company. I had laid out that Silvercrest might be an acquisition target one day due to its high-quality mine in Mexico. Bad on the other, as I obviously closed my case too early at “only” +85.1%, leaving some performance on the table. There’s another interesting silver miner in Mexico, sitting not less than on the world’s biggest undeveloped deposit. Is this an even better Silvercrest in the making?

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Investing in oligopolies isn’t always a winning strategy

Everyone knows that market concentration leads to less competition and in turn to more powerful entities within this group. Such oligopolies by definition should allow the respective companies to achieving strong results and high margins due to pricing power, but also where applicable economies of scale. In reality, however, not every sector or company offers automatically a good stock investment, even when factually operating in an oligopoly.

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What most investors get wrong about gold stocks + new research report

There are three things the majority of investors fail to understand with regards to gold stocks. The first is gold is NOT THE hedge against inflation and thus gold stocks not even better hedges. The second is with higher gold prices, NOT ALL gold stocks go up exponentially. The third is the evergreen that all gold stocks are heavily undervalued by the stupid market and great buying opportunities. I am going to take these beliefs apart. My Premium PLUS members receive on top my best gold stock idea after I have already had a golden hand with my silver pick (for all my members). If you read until the end, I have a small gift for you.

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Namibia – the new and better Guyana? + new research report

Although ever since the predictions and paroles have been that the world is running out of oil soon, from time to time big new discoveries have been made. Brazil has vast known reserves that could last for 50 years. Offshore the coast of neighboring Guyana, a reservoir of an estimated double digit billion barrels of oil equivalent is being already extracted. There’s a good chance, Namibia, a country in Southwest-Africa, could become the “next Guyana” – maybe even a better one!

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BlackRock: ESG harmful for business – hated stocks poised to come back?

One of the big investment topics of this decade could be the return of those neglected and hated sectors that did not fit into boldly advertised ESG policies. Dirty, careless, only return focussed, etc. Yet, that’s not the same as not needed or replaceable, not to mention affordability. On the other hand, you have greenwashing, higher costs of living and ousting of non-liberal, more conservative customers with silly messages and acts. BlackRock is writing it and the market is speaking. Listen.

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Time to look at gas + new research report

Energy in general is a hotly debated and controversial topic. But when it comes to natural gas, it can become extreme, especially if you mix in liquefied natural gas – or in short: LNG. For long, I have been sitting on the sidelines regarding this market. But I feel now is the time to not only write a Weekly, but also a research report for my members about it – as a hedge from a European perspective. As a bonus, I estimate a 10% dividend yield to be announced next week from my latest pick.

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A second look at tobacco stocks after BAT’s gigantic write-down

One the most heavily watched and discussed stocks last week was British American Tobacco after it released a trading update. While the headline read relatively okay-ish, on the following pages they admitted to take a hefty 25 bn. GBP impairment on their US operations with the next earnings. While many see this as a non-event due to not affecting cash flows, I’m looking at it differently. I rather feel confirmed with what I wrote earlier in the year about Altria.

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Not all that glitters is gold – a critical look at Barrick Gold

Everyone who engages with gold mining companies, very early stumbles upon Barrick Gold. It’s a household name and a darling of many. Even though the company describes itself as “world class”, the performance of the underlying business has been terrible – no understatement. There are so many myths about gold, silver and miners that I want to clean up with another such. It is not always the go-to strategy to just pick a household name, assuming size is all that matters.

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