Shares of Danish affordable-jewelry maker Pandora are extremely cyclical. Depending on one’s timing, it is possible to catch a fat multi-bagger, but also to watch it losing 50% or more in a relatively short amount of time. The most recent drawdown from the all-time high is 60% in just about 15 months. Usually, this has been a level to consider going long. Is this the case again?
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Europe’s, and especially Germany’s, industrial machine runs primarily on imported raw materials. A mix of limited domestic deposits and seemingly unlimited regulatory hurdles to exploit factually available resources, has created near-total dependence on foreign supplies for critical inputs like oil, gas, copper, lithium, rare earths, and more. These are essentials for cars, machines, electronics, and even the “green transition”. Recent escalations in the Middle East have amplified supply risks, pushed prices higher, and exposed the fragility of long global chains. Could this be the wake-up call for serious recycling?
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Over the last not even one and a half years, egg prices in the U.S. have gone through two extremes. A record high caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was followed by a collapse of unprecedented scale, leading to decade-low prices today. Being now likely closer to the bottom than the top, and with odds being low that eggs are going to be given away for free, it might be a good time to have a look at this sector. Vital Farms was shining bright on the way up. Is this now an egg-citing, countercyclical opportunity?
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Due to the current circumstances, in this edition I am writing a more holistic and strategic weekly. It differs from what I am else publishing. Instead of discussing one concrete stock and aiming to be more or less precisely right with my directional call, my focus here lies on sharing my thoughts. Some of them might be in an early stage, necessitating more research, but also a wait-and-see observative approach. I am giving insights into sectors and ideas I have regarding where to have an eye on, but also where caution might be the better choice.
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Copper is an essential resource. Everything wired needs copper. Even though the entire electrified world needs and uses copper, supply and demand are rather concentrated in a few countries. North America is very rich in commodities, including untapped copper deposits. While it is self-sufficient in energy production, wouldn’t it make strategic sense to unlock these domestic copper supplies to secure future needs? You bet. But there’s an issue of a similar color.
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The price of gold has been making new highs practically on a daily basis – until recently. Those who sold too early missed on further gains. Year to date 2025, the yellow metal truly exploded, from below 2,600 USD to a record of above 4,300 USD. Little surprisingly, gold mining stocks have seen even bigger gains, as at this price level every miner should be extremely profitable, even the worst operators. Instead of becoming greedy, I (just in time) decided to close my two active gold mining cases for my paid-members, realizing fat gains. Why have I decided to do so?
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Many investors and hurt speculators have been waiting for lithium stocks to finally turn around. After the EV and battery bubble burst in late 2022, losses have been staggering for those who stayed on board, betting on a small correction only. Bullish arguments are abundant, like the long-term demand story that fueled the boom, low commodity prices being the cure for low commodity prices, and recently also direct government investments into certain resource companies. I am telling you why I remain on the sidelines nonetheless.
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In May 2024, I published a Weekly about gold mining stocks. My focus was on how to analyze them, and which parameters to know and watch. I also compared the industry’s three biggest names to evaluate how they performed, and why so (at that time, they had, surprisingly for many, underperformed the spot gold price). Today, I discuss three gold miners I like from a quality perspective for the watchlist. All my members on top will receive my latest stock idea – a gold stock, but with a slightly different case. Even if the gold price does not rise, this could become a multi-bagger which is unlikely for most gold stocks.
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Over the last years many energy companies made gigantic windfall profits which allowed them to ramp up their shareholder distributions. Dividends and buybacks are often the reasons for investments in big energy companies. Since the high in 2022, oil prices have almost halved, though. With the main driver oil now trading around 60–65 USD, the question arises whether these generous payouts are sustainable. Short answer: no, if we see a longer period of low energy prices. What does this mean for the Supermajors and their investors? And how do I handle this unfavorable environment? Is it maybe even advantageous for my setup?
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I like simplicity – in life in general, but especially in the context of stock investing. When analyzing commodity, respectively energy stocks, a good first approach to assess the valuation is to compare the current price with the net asset value (NAV). Talos Energy, an American offshore operator in the Gulf, looks like a promising deal. The company is a low-cost operator and trades (at least) 40% below its NAV. Supported by an active acquisition history as well as Mexico’s richest man, the company’s enterprise value has risen while oil is flat. Is this the window of opportunity to buy into this company while it’s still cheap?
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