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The Donlin Gold Project – America’s biggest gold mine in the making

Located in Alaska, the Donlin Gold Project is an impressive mine-in-development. When shovel-ready, it would be one of the biggest, if not the single biggest, gold mine in the entire Americas and even among the top mines globally. On top of a yearly output of more than 1 mn. ounces, an incredible mine life of almost 30 years is envisioned. Donlin is owned half-half by Barrick Gold and the much smaller NovaGold Resources. The latter has a market cap of 1.1 bn. USD while at current gold prices the mine could have a net present value of an incredible 40 bn. USD! Is this an overlooked multi-bagger?

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Is South Africa’s Sasol a steel at 0.4x book value?

Once a 40 bn. USD heavyweight, South Africa’s energy and chemicals company Sasol has imploded to a market cap of less than 3 bn. USD. South Africa primarily makes negative news, as the country is coping with political instability, a weak economy, high unemployment, the world’s highest inequality, a fragile energy and electricity supply and even recently announced legally allowed expropriations of white people. In this environment, the currency depreciated strongly. Is now the time to look for bargains in this crisis-ridden environment? A look at South Africa’s (former) giant.

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Best Loser Wins – book summary

With my second book summary, at least on the surface, I am risking to surprise some of my readers. The reason is that the subtitle reads “Why normal thinking never wins the trading game”. The word “never” is underlined on the book cover. My emphasis is on “trading game”. While I have neither secretly switched to day trading, nor do I pursue any such goals, nor do I play any type of game as a fundamentally driven analyst and investor, I have found it nonetheless very insightful to take on the perspective of a day trader. Quite a few of the book’s core messages indeed do resonate well with my own thoughts and approach on portfolio management as well as psychological strength in stock investing.

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Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part II – Alcohol stocks

After my take on food stocks, in today’s second part of the series I am having a look at another failed group of consumer darlings – alcohol producers. These “sin stocks”, similar to tobacco, have been seen for long as one of the best ideas to play defense. Especially in crises, it was said people would smoke and drink even more. The only difference: valuations. While most tobacco stocks today are deep-value plays, alcohol stocks for a long time have had rather rich multiples. Frustrating for those who only looked at the perceived quality of the companies, but not their risks. With many alcohol companies trading substantially below their highs, is now the time to get active?

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Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part I – Food stocks

Weren’t we told stocks of consumer staples should be cornerstones of every mindfully assembled portfolio? With their defensive business models, predictable demand (one needs to eat, drink, clean, etc.), strong brands, consistent dividends and long histories as proof of being in business for a reason, this sounds like a no-brainer. Winning by not losing, everything else is too speculative, isn’t it? However, over the last five and even ten years, exactly this group of stocks has disappointed extremely. Many are in the red and even factoring in their dividends the performance was abysmal. Are valuations now cheap enough to take a bite?

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Is Fannie Mae really a safe multi-bagger?

Readers who like spicier ideas by now might have heard about ongoing discussions of a potential release of two (in)famous US mortgage companies from conservatorship, i.e. a possible privatization. Yes indeed, state-owned (or partly-owned) enterprises aren’t just a thing of perceived socialist or communist countries. At the latest after none other than hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman pitched his investment case aggressively on Twitter, stocks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have made big waves. According to Ackman, there’s still a substantial upside of 5x left (after already being up by 5x since November). Is this THE no-brainer opportunity for 2025?

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Will Altria’s stock thrive under Trump 2.0? + new research report

Although the tobacco story seems to be well-known and boring, a few things have happened in the recent past. The feared menthol ban is now off the table. And with a more corporate-friendly administration Trump 2.0, there’s a good chance tobacco companies won’t be further pressured. Marlboro-maker Altria massively outperformed the S&P 500 over the last twelve months with double (!) the latter’s return. Does Altria now belong into a well-suited stock portfolio? My Premium PLUS members receive my latest stock idea – an indirectly tobacco- / nicotine-related company with the potential to be a multi-bagger already by year-end.

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Old money doesn’t go out of style – Ralph Lauren + new research report

Whether markets go up or down, it seems as if the spotlight only belongs to stocks linked to the sectors of tech, certain resources like uranium, lithium and maybe some oil and gas as well as the typical dividend stories. However, in the background and barely noticed by the broader public an entirely different name has made a ferocious comeback – Ralph Lauren. Boring for some, timeless for others, shares of RL outperformed the S&P 500 over the last one, three and five years (and even quarter-century). Not by little, but by a wide margin. Even before dividends. So, what’s in store for this iconic name?

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Retail crowd’s favorite REITs: disappointment likely to continue

REITs, or real estate investment trusts, are an asset class that is typically followed and bought by investors with a focus on cash flows in the form of dividends. One of the main arguments is that this way they don’t have to bother about stock price fluctuations, as their dividend income is safe. Sounds logical, but the long-term performance of three highly celebrated such REITs is simply weak. The worst thing, I am expecting this trend to continue or even to worsen.

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Halozyme Therapeutics – an overlooked bargain? + new stock idea

Feeling uncomfortable with everybody’s darling stocks, my motivation was and still is to find stock ideas with what I call “an own life”. With that I am looking for companies with internal triggers or catalysts which can influence shares positively (almost) regardless of what broader markets do. While I do not believe (for now) in a hefty stock market crash which pushes down all equities, I cannot rule out a nosebleed correction in the tech sector. In search of uncorrelated stock ideas, I spent some time on the Pharma / biotech sector. Halozyme Therapeutics is a seemingly lowly-valued stock. My Premium PLUS members have already received my latest potential-multi-bagger stock idea in an exclusive research report to kick off the year 2025.

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