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PepsiCo – refreshing buy or just a crushed can?

The stock of soft drinks and snacks giant PepsiCo over the last five years has done exactly nothing. Dividends were the only form of returns, but this will hardly make investors high-five this market-lagging performance. With a just raised-again dividend, a yield on the high-end of the historical range, a comparatively low PE ratio of 16x and an uncertain economic environment, this consumer staple company might qualify for a defensive portfolio.

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Third time’s the charm? Is Capri finally a buy?

I already discussed the stock of Capri Holdings twice last year, prior to and after the failed takeover attempt by Tapestry. Capri’s stock fell even below my lower target of 20 USD from initially 35 USD. Now, sitting around 15 USD and having announced the sale of troubled Versace, many things have changed, requiring a reassessment of the case. If the sale goes through, the balance sheet flips from net debt to net cash at current figures. Also, loss-making Versace will stop to be a burden for the group. Is the third time now finally the charm?

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Pernod Ricard yields 5% – convincing enough?

Pernod Ricard’s stock has taken an almost unthinkable tumble, plummeting from a spirited high of over 200 EUR not too long ago in 2023 to even below 100 EUR now. That’s a 50% nosedive in just two years, while the broader markets – until they got a bit tipsy a few months back – were toasting new highs. The more so shocking, as Pernod Ricard is seen as a “recession-proof, high-quality company with valuable brands”. Is this a rare chance to grab a premium spirits stock at a bargain, letting its value intoxicate your portfolio? Or could it trap you in a value hangover?

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Searching for recession- and tariff-protection

Like I hinted in my outlook for 2025, this year indeed so far has proved to be rather volatile. Sentiment can change almost on a day-to-day basis, depending on political announcements. Even wild swings of 7–10% in just one day are not impossible. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to think about more defensive stocks, assuming the tariff circus continues and / or a recession hits soon. There are the usual suspects which can do the job. But I wouldn’t expect too much upside. My members have already received my next stock idea – one of the most defensive, recession- and tariff-unaffected businesses available – paired with decent upside.

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Afterword to the recent market crash

As irony and destiny wanted it, with the publication of my last Weekly, markets crashed down hard, effectively erasing much of the gains of the last twelve months. Of course, it wasn’t my publication that ignited the fireworks. I had written my Weekly shortly prior to the tariff announcement which was the catalyst that sent markets worldwide lower in fear of a major economic contraction. Big calls for another 1929 depression and 1987 Black Monday crash evaporated, at least for now. Then yesterday, one of the best days on Wall Street EVER. What to make out of this?

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Q1 is over – how hard was the correction for you?

Depending on your personal portfolio composition, the just closed first quarter 2025 might show an entirely different performance. While scrolling through twitter it reads almost like a hefty crash with big losses is behind us, the reality is on an aggregate level not much has happened so far. Even more contradictory, the current correction only involved certain sectors and individual stocks. This is the sector rotation I have written about in the past several times. What to draw out from it for our portfolios?

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Talos Energy – a strong buy trading 40% below NAV? + new stock idea

I like simplicity – in life in general, but especially in the context of stock investing. When analyzing commodity, respectively energy stocks, a good first approach to assess the valuation is to compare the current price with the net asset value (NAV). Talos Energy, an American offshore operator in the Gulf, looks like a promising deal. The company is a low-cost operator and trades (at least) 40% below its NAV. Supported by an active acquisition history as well as Mexico’s richest man, the company’s enterprise value has risen while oil is flat. Is this the window of opportunity to buy into this company while it’s still cheap?

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The Donlin Gold Project – America’s biggest gold mine in the making

Located in Alaska, the Donlin Gold Project is an impressive mine-in-development. When shovel-ready, it would be one of the biggest, if not the single biggest, gold mine in the entire Americas and even among the top mines globally. On top of a yearly output of more than 1 mn. ounces, an incredible mine life of almost 30 years is envisioned. Donlin is owned half-half by Barrick Gold and the much smaller NovaGold Resources. The latter has a market cap of 1.1 bn. USD while at current gold prices the mine could have a net present value of an incredible 40 bn. USD! Is this an overlooked multi-bagger?

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Is South Africa’s Sasol a steel at 0.4x book value?

Once a 40 bn. USD heavyweight, South Africa’s energy and chemicals company Sasol has imploded to a market cap of less than 3 bn. USD. South Africa primarily makes negative news, as the country is coping with political instability, a weak economy, high unemployment, the world’s highest inequality, a fragile energy and electricity supply and even recently announced legally allowed expropriations of white people. In this environment, the currency depreciated strongly. Is now the time to look for bargains in this crisis-ridden environment? A look at South Africa’s (former) giant.

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Best Loser Wins – book summary

With my second book summary, at least on the surface, I am risking to surprise some of my readers. The reason is that the subtitle reads “Why normal thinking never wins the trading game”. The word “never” is underlined on the book cover. My emphasis is on “trading game”. While I have neither secretly switched to day trading, nor do I pursue any such goals, nor do I play any type of game as a fundamentally driven analyst and investor, I have found it nonetheless very insightful to take on the perspective of a day trader. Quite a few of the book’s core messages indeed do resonate well with my own thoughts and approach on portfolio management as well as psychological strength in stock investing.

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