Tag Archives: Free Cash Flow

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Smooth ride or highway to hell for Harley-Davidson?

When a company announces a big buyback (percentage-wise, I don’t care about big headline numbers), I usually start to get interested, provided the case is overall solid. Harley-Davidson on the surface checks several boxes like a famous brand, a loyal customer base, a rock-solid balance sheet, relatively stable earnings and cash flow generation paired with a low valuation – and on top now also a new aggressive buyback program of the equivalent of no less than 20% of stock outstanding. Is this now an incredible contrarian opportunity?

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Post the Volatility crash – next leg up? + new stock idea to benefit

Isn’t it amazing how forgetful market participants can be? Not even a full month ago, sentiment was as if the (financial) world were about to implode. Just a week later the panic-induced market losses were already gained back and three weeks later the crowd is smelling new all-time highs again. What I’m concerned about is expectations seem to be that nothing unfortunate will happen again. I have become a bit concerned, as complacency seems to be EXTRAORDINARILY high. In such an environment, small shifts are enough to cause a market panic – there are a few signs to be aware of. And a new stock idea for my members to capitalize on that, too.

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Estée Lauder – after –75% still not pretty + dividend in danger

A common misconception is that lower stock prices are akin to cheaper shares. Without much explanation, it is logical that this can only apply when the underlying business has at least been stable. Otherwise it is possible that a stock even becomes more expensive! While this is not the case at Estée Lauder, despite a 75% drop from its all-time high, the stock is still looking ugly valuation-wise. A decent downside risk remains. On top, the likelihood for a dividend cut or even entire suspension is significant.

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After raising big money during the mania – is Gamestop a buy now?

Over the last weeks, the stock of struggling gaming retailer GameStop has been making big waves for a second time after 2021. Fortunately, management made use of the mania and raised an insane ~4.3 bn. USD via two equity raises. With such a huge cash pile and no debt, GameStop is not in danger of going bankrupt anytime soon. As the stock is down again significantly, is it now worth a look?

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The case of NIKE – NOT worth every price

About two weeks ago, the stock of former darling Nike collapsed by 20%, something many thought could not be possible for a market leader. Especially, as Nike’s shares have fallen already by 40% from their all-time high at truly excessive valuations. But of course it’s possible, as a lower stock even by this margin is not automatically an attractive investment from a risk and reward perspective (sorry buy-the dippers). Today’s Weekly is a lesson about valuations and market behavior, something we need to remind ourselves all over again not to fall into valuations traps, no matter how bullish sentiment is.

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Breaking up to unlock value + new research report

While I do not agree that the market is efficient all the time, I also do not agree that it is completely inefficient. Especially in today’s world where information is more accessible than ever before. The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle. Clear cases with little surprises and high transparency with lots of attention tend to be valued fairly or even overvalued, especially when sentiment is positive. However, when something is overlooked and / or less transparent, respectively a bit more complicated and even hated, there’s a chance to find hidden value.

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Hangover: Time to buy Brown-Forman?

Who doesn’t know the saying that quality has its price? While I would not necessarily view Jack Daniel’s Whiskey’s as high quality, the parent company Brown-Forman’s stock for long has been seen and valued by the market as such. Shares seemingly knew only one way: slowly, but reliably up. Despite small growth rates and unlike its bottles on the shelves, this high-margin business’ equity was never really on sale – until recently. Is this finally a once in a decade buying opportunity?

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Three consumer discretionary darlings I’m not buying (yet?)

Browsing through Twitter / X, I often see people posting about “buy-the-dip” candidates. While this is not necessarily the case for energy stocks (where as my readers and especially members know, I have a positive opinion about), in the recent past more and more consumer discretionary stocks have been presented. The main arguments are always the same – they are cheap(er) now! I have some doubts that it’s time to rush in.

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Investing in oligopolies isn’t always a winning strategy

Everyone knows that market concentration leads to less competition and in turn to more powerful entities within this group. Such oligopolies by definition should allow the respective companies to achieving strong results and high margins due to pricing power, but also where applicable economies of scale. In reality, however, not every sector or company offers automatically a good stock investment, even when factually operating in an oligopoly.

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Checkmate – more kings to have on the radar for dividend cuts

My longer time readers know that dividend cuts have been one of my favorite topics. It is of high importance for me to ring the bell in order to help investors get more cautious with their investments. There are no risk-free stocks. The same applies to proclaimed “bond-proxy” dividend stocks, no matter which useless title they hold in connection with their dividend series. Today, I’m presenting two more kings I have on my radar for a cut.

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