Tag Archives: Free Cash Flow

Posted on by

The case of e.l.f. Beauty — chic story meets a glamorous valuation

The comparatively young company e.l.f. Beauty is famous among younger generations thanks to low-price, high-value and cruelty-free cosmetics. Its stunning rise, disrupting the industry with bold innovation, has glossed its stock with a remarkable run, reflecting glamorous growth and consistent market share gains for years. After its peak, the stock fell by three quarters and has more than doubled again since then. After the latest earnings, shares surged by more than 20% as a big acquisition was announced. Is this a beautiful compounder to have an eye on?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

4 prestigious giants set to slash their dividends

Here we go again with one of my favorite contrarian topics: Buckle up, the dividend butcher is sharpening his axe once more! Four prestigious dividend stocks once deemed safe havens are poised to slash their generosity to ribbons. With worsening fundamentals, overstretched balance sheets and drying cash flows in a challenging environment, these firms will likely need to trim the fat from their dividends in the not-too-distant future.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

WD-40: an overlooked portfolio lubricant?

Last Sunday, I finally went after an annoying task that had been waiting for me for too long: to remove sticky and really ugly glue from an entire big window frame. My first attempts failed miserably and I had left it untouched for some time. But that stuff needed to be finally done. After some research, I found the solution: WD-40, the home workers best friend. While in full swing, I remembered that WD-40 is also a publicly listed company! The stock has practically always been extremely expensive, but I haven’t covered it for years. Time for an update to answer the question whether this is a smooth slide or a rusty bet.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Will Big Oil have to cut their dividends if oil prices stay low?

Over the last years many energy companies made gigantic windfall profits which allowed them to ramp up their shareholder distributions. Dividends and buybacks are often the reasons for investments in big energy companies. Since the high in 2022, oil prices have almost halved, though. With the main driver oil now trading around 60–65 USD, the question arises whether these generous payouts are sustainable. Short answer: no, if we see a longer period of low energy prices. What does this mean for the Supermajors and their investors? And how do I handle this unfavorable environment? Is it maybe even advantageous for my setup?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

PepsiCo – refreshing buy or just a crushed can?

The stock of soft drinks and snacks giant PepsiCo over the last five years has done exactly nothing. Dividends were the only form of returns, but this will hardly make investors high-five this market-lagging performance. With a just raised-again dividend, a yield on the high-end of the historical range, a comparatively low PE ratio of 16x and an uncertain economic environment, this consumer staple company might qualify for a defensive portfolio.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Pernod Ricard yields 5% – convincing enough?

Pernod Ricard’s stock has taken an almost unthinkable tumble, plummeting from a spirited high of over 200 EUR not too long ago in 2023 to even below 100 EUR now. That’s a 50% nosedive in just two years, while the broader markets – until they got a bit tipsy a few months back – were toasting new highs. The more so shocking, as Pernod Ricard is seen as a “recession-proof, high-quality company with valuable brands”. Is this a rare chance to grab a premium spirits stock at a bargain, letting its value intoxicate your portfolio? Or could it trap you in a value hangover?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Searching for recession- and tariff-protection

Like I hinted in my outlook for 2025, this year indeed so far has proved to be rather volatile. Sentiment can change almost on a day-to-day basis, depending on political announcements. Even wild swings of 7–10% in just one day are not impossible. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to think about more defensive stocks, assuming the tariff circus continues and / or a recession hits soon. There are the usual suspects which can do the job. But I wouldn’t expect too much upside. My members have already received my next stock idea – one of the most defensive, recession- and tariff-unaffected businesses available – paired with decent upside.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Talos Energy – a strong buy trading 40% below NAV? + new stock idea

I like simplicity – in life in general, but especially in the context of stock investing. When analyzing commodity, respectively energy stocks, a good first approach to assess the valuation is to compare the current price with the net asset value (NAV). Talos Energy, an American offshore operator in the Gulf, looks like a promising deal. The company is a low-cost operator and trades (at least) 40% below its NAV. Supported by an active acquisition history as well as Mexico’s richest man, the company’s enterprise value has risen while oil is flat. Is this the window of opportunity to buy into this company while it’s still cheap?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Is South Africa’s Sasol a steel at 0.4x book value?

Once a 40 bn. USD heavyweight, South Africa’s energy and chemicals company Sasol has imploded to a market cap of less than 3 bn. USD. South Africa primarily makes negative news, as the country is coping with political instability, a weak economy, high unemployment, the world’s highest inequality, a fragile energy and electricity supply and even recently announced legally allowed expropriations of white people. In this environment, the currency depreciated strongly. Is now the time to look for bargains in this crisis-ridden environment? A look at South Africa’s (former) giant.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part II – Alcohol stocks

After my take on food stocks, in today’s second part of the series I am having a look at another failed group of consumer darlings – alcohol producers. These “sin stocks”, similar to tobacco, have been seen for long as one of the best ideas to play defense. Especially in crises, it was said people would smoke and drink even more. The only difference: valuations. While most tobacco stocks today are deep-value plays, alcohol stocks for a long time have had rather rich multiples. Frustrating for those who only looked at the perceived quality of the companies, but not their risks. With many alcohol companies trading substantially below their highs, is now the time to get active?

Continue reading →