Tag Archives: Free Cash Flow

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Consumer Tectonics: Why branded FMCG Stocks have lost their edge + new research report

This is a topic I have already written many weeklies about. I haven’t counted them, but it might be the one with the most publications — very likely when adding my twitter posts and comments. Directly about certain struggling, popular consumer stocks and on a higher, aggregated level about the sector as such. I do not get tired of pointing towards what went wrong, but especially cautioning my readers to not fall for seemingly “cheap” consumer stocks. There are deep structural shifts that better not be ignored. Today, I am expanding on this topic, after having studied two eye-opening third-party consumer reports that manifest my negative view about these value traps.

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Redcare Pharmacy (ex Shop Apotheke)— Why I am sending this one back + new research report

The online pharmacy market seems to be a promising long-term growth story. After some regulatory delays and starting issues, this segment is showing explosive growth, with much more to come. At least this is the pitch. Hearing the pro arguments, much makes sense and seems to be the logical path forward. As it is not possible to invest in physical pharmacies for most of us, is the online pharmacy market leader in Germany maybe a good pick to get a foot in the door?

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Beiersdorf: German consumer-darling on the sale rack?

The stock of the “Nivea” company for long has been an unspectacular, almost quiet compounder inside the Dax. Barely anyone talked about it, except maybe in the context of a mean management that was reluctant to raise the dividend for many years. Shares nonetheless performed well, offering a defensive and stable pick with solid returns for investors. Unfortunately, this has come to a spectacular end — shares have lost 50% from their high. Is this now a good opportunity to load up?

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Have popular consumer stocks fallen enough? + new research report

For several years now, investors have been wondering when consumer stocks will finally bottom. Once foundational safeguards across many portfolios and mainly bought for their dividends, and not their share price appreciation (though welcome), defensive consumer stocks have created strong headaches for those who bought at high multiples, ignoring the big fundamental shift that happened (Financial Engineering readers have been warned about). Naturally, at some point, there will be a bottom, though. Are we there yet?

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This Australian Stock is up +2,000% — in just a year

Who doesn’t dream about finding a stock just before it really takes off? Here comes the top performer of Australia’s ASX 200 benchmark index. A stock that has surged over 20x since last summer. And it’s not some questionable mining company — but a serious medical technology business. The company we are looking at today is set to improve and disrupt established procedures, benefitting patients and clinics. Was this 2,000% blast-off just the beginning?

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Flight into mergers: the solution for “defensive” consumer companies?

One of my favorite topics (and targets for criticism) for quite some time have been consumer companies. Especially those with a seemingly defensive business model that in the past offered stability in times of market stress. This recipe does not seem to work anymore, though. First and foremost, food companies have experienced an unprecedented bear market that caught many risk-averse investors on the wrong foot. When stocks have fallen significantly, takeover interest arises. Is this a sign that shares of consumer staples have fallen enough?

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Does Cochlear Ltd. sound promising after a 50% drop?

The hearing-loss market is concentrated with a few companies pulling the strings. In the sub-segment of severe to profound hearing loss, the Australian company Cochlear Ltd. is the undisputed leader with a market share of more than 60%. Between 2005 and 2024, the stock 14-bagged, generating stellar returns for shareholders. Since then, however, shares dropped 50% in just two years, culminating in a 20% washout in one day after the recent results. A bit surprising for a dominating leader operating in a stable market with rising demand. Is the stock a crystal-clear opportunity or why the deafening silence from buyers?

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A look at Magnum Ice Cream after the spin-off

In December 2025, or two months ago, consumer giant Unilever spun off its ice-cream division. Despite still holding ~20% of stock of “The Magnum Ice Cream Company”, as the new entity is called, it will now be responsible on its own. It is a relatively big separation — TMICC has a market cap of 8 billion EUR. Unlike food in general and high-carb and -sugar in particular, ice cream has weathered the challenges of the sector even very well. That’s why I am checking now the stock of The Magnum Ice Cream Company, after full-year results have been published.

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Planet Fitness: Beneficiary of the weight-loss boom?

One of the booming (and at the same time a bit annoying) themes at the moment is weight-loss. Practically no day without such headlines. What in the past was a combination of a relatively clean diet paired with frequent activity to stay in shape, today seems to have shifted towards wonder drugs to do the job. Of course genetics also play a role, but broadly speaking this was the formula. In my view going to “the gym” is unlikely to be replaced by weight-loss drugs, no matter how much space they occupy in the news. To the contrary, Planet Fitness is an interesting case to have an eye on.

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Safe 20% with Kenvue?

The case of the world’s biggest pure-play consumer care company, Kenvue, is a special one. What makes it interesting is that despite being the primus inter pares, it fetched a 48.7 billion USD bid in November 2025. However, there’s a notable gap of around 20% between the takeover price and where shares currently trade. Could this be an idea, entirely uncorrelated to the broader market, for 2026 for “safe” 20%, if the deal closes?

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