Tag Archives: Free Cash Flow

Posted on by

Is South Africa’s Sasol a steel at 0.4x book value?

Once a 40 bn. USD heavyweight, South Africa’s energy and chemicals company Sasol has imploded to a market cap of less than 3 bn. USD. South Africa primarily makes negative news, as the country is coping with political instability, a weak economy, high unemployment, the world’s highest inequality, a fragile energy and electricity supply and even recently announced legally allowed expropriations of white people. In this environment, the currency depreciated strongly. Is now the time to look for bargains in this crisis-ridden environment? A look at South Africa’s (former) giant.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part II – Alcohol stocks

After my take on food stocks, in today’s second part of the series I am having a look at another failed group of consumer darlings – alcohol producers. These “sin stocks”, similar to tobacco, have been seen for long as one of the best ideas to play defense. Especially in crises, it was said people would smoke and drink even more. The only difference: valuations. While most tobacco stocks today are deep-value plays, alcohol stocks for a long time have had rather rich multiples. Frustrating for those who only looked at the perceived quality of the companies, but not their risks. With many alcohol companies trading substantially below their highs, is now the time to get active?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part I – Food stocks

Weren’t we told stocks of consumer staples should be cornerstones of every mindfully assembled portfolio? With their defensive business models, predictable demand (one needs to eat, drink, clean, etc.), strong brands, consistent dividends and long histories as proof of being in business for a reason, this sounds like a no-brainer. Winning by not losing, everything else is too speculative, isn’t it? However, over the last five and even ten years, exactly this group of stocks has disappointed extremely. Many are in the red and even factoring in their dividends the performance was abysmal. Are valuations now cheap enough to take a bite?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Will Altria’s stock thrive under Trump 2.0? + new research report

Although the tobacco story seems to be well-known and boring, a few things have happened in the recent past. The feared menthol ban is now off the table. And with a more corporate-friendly administration Trump 2.0, there’s a good chance tobacco companies won’t be further pressured. Marlboro-maker Altria massively outperformed the S&P 500 over the last twelve months with double (!) the latter’s return. Does Altria now belong into a well-suited stock portfolio? My Premium PLUS members receive my latest stock idea – an indirectly tobacco- / nicotine-related company with the potential to be a multi-bagger already by year-end.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Old money doesn’t go out of style – Ralph Lauren + new research report

Whether markets go up or down, it seems as if the spotlight only belongs to stocks linked to the sectors of tech, certain resources like uranium, lithium and maybe some oil and gas as well as the typical dividend stories. However, in the background and barely noticed by the broader public an entirely different name has made a ferocious comeback – Ralph Lauren. Boring for some, timeless for others, shares of RL outperformed the S&P 500 over the last one, three and five years (and even quarter-century). Not by little, but by a wide margin. Even before dividends. So, what’s in store for this iconic name?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Halozyme Therapeutics – an overlooked bargain? + new stock idea

Feeling uncomfortable with everybody’s darling stocks, my motivation was and still is to find stock ideas with what I call “an own life”. With that I am looking for companies with internal triggers or catalysts which can influence shares positively (almost) regardless of what broader markets do. While I do not believe (for now) in a hefty stock market crash which pushes down all equities, I cannot rule out a nosebleed correction in the tech sector. In search of uncorrelated stock ideas, I spent some time on the Pharma / biotech sector. Halozyme Therapeutics is a seemingly lowly-valued stock. My Premium PLUS members have already received my latest potential-multi-bagger stock idea in an exclusive research report to kick off the year 2025.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Warm-up for 2025 – better expect the unexpected

Despite having done a combined review-and-outlook Weekly already, I decided to write another one with the focus solely on the outlook for 2025. Over the last weeks, I have gathered new ideas, but also brought my thoughts in order during the days that I took off. There are a few other things I wanted to share. What could the next investing year have in store for us?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Stocks of Dollar Stores – now finally a buy?

This Weekly is an update taking a second look at North American “dollar store” operators Dollar General and Dollarama. After almost exactly to the day two years ago, I featured both names in an analysis concluding that I have sympathies for the businesses as such, but not for their stocks. Something quite interesting has happened since: one stock totally cratered, the other advanced by another 75%. The development could not have been more different! What do both have in store now?

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Drill Baby, drill + new research report “Trump Trade 2.0”

One of the expectations for the second term of president-elect Donald Trump is that “dirty” energy will see a huge revival due to pushing back the strict ESG policies of the current administration. Less wind and solar and back to more oil, gas and coal, maybe with nuclear mixed in. However, despite the perception being that Trump is good for oil and gas producers, the above would be exactly the opposite as more supply means lower energy prices. Will we see aggressive drilling and lower energy prices or shall we prepare for something entirely different? All my members receive my latest stock idea, my second “Trump Trade” which should be a big beneficiary either way.

Continue reading →
Posted on by

Is focus-investing risky?

One of the first principles a new investor stumbles upon is “don’t put all eggs in one basket”. In other words, diversification is said to be the key to investment success. My longer time readers know that I am strictly opposing this approach in its extreme form. The viewing angle might be even the right one – winning by not losing, respectively by minimizing risks – which is also my strategy. However, there’s a material difference between buying blindly a big basket and focussing on a few investments where one has done the homework.

Continue reading →