Category Archives: stocks to avoid

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Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part II – Alcohol stocks

After my take on food stocks, in today’s second part of the series I am having a look at another failed group of consumer darlings – alcohol producers. These “sin stocks”, similar to tobacco, have been seen for long as one of the best ideas to play defense. Especially in crises, it was said people would smoke and drink even more. The only difference: valuations. While most tobacco stocks today are deep-value plays, alcohol stocks for a long time have had rather rich multiples. Frustrating for those who only looked at the perceived quality of the companies, but not their risks. With many alcohol companies trading substantially below their highs, is now the time to get active?

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Will Altria’s stock thrive under Trump 2.0? + new research report

Although the tobacco story seems to be well-known and boring, a few things have happened in the recent past. The feared menthol ban is now off the table. And with a more corporate-friendly administration Trump 2.0, there’s a good chance tobacco companies won’t be further pressured. Marlboro-maker Altria massively outperformed the S&P 500 over the last twelve months with double (!) the latter’s return. Does Altria now belong into a well-suited stock portfolio? My Premium PLUS members receive my latest stock idea – an indirectly tobacco- / nicotine-related company with the potential to be a multi-bagger already by year-end.

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Old money doesn’t go out of style – Ralph Lauren + new research report

Whether markets go up or down, it seems as if the spotlight only belongs to stocks linked to the sectors of tech, certain resources like uranium, lithium and maybe some oil and gas as well as the typical dividend stories. However, in the background and barely noticed by the broader public an entirely different name has made a ferocious comeback – Ralph Lauren. Boring for some, timeless for others, shares of RL outperformed the S&P 500 over the last one, three and five years (and even quarter-century). Not by little, but by a wide margin. Even before dividends. So, what’s in store for this iconic name?

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Retail crowd’s favorite REITs: disappointment likely to continue

REITs, or real estate investment trusts, are an asset class that is typically followed and bought by investors with a focus on cash flows in the form of dividends. One of the main arguments is that this way they don’t have to bother about stock price fluctuations, as their dividend income is safe. Sounds logical, but the long-term performance of three highly celebrated such REITs is simply weak. The worst thing, I am expecting this trend to continue or even to worsen.

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Berkshire Hathaway – an inferior stock pick now

Risking to be accused of blasphemy with this Weekly by one or the other Buffett-fan, nonetheless I decided to have a look at the stock of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett’s investment holding has achieved a tremendous performance and beaten the markets by a wide margin since its inception. However, this was not the case in the younger past. Growth constraints are one reason. But there are quite a few other aspects that do not make this conglomerate appear to be the ultimate must-own stock.

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Warm-up for 2025 – better expect the unexpected

Despite having done a combined review-and-outlook Weekly already, I decided to write another one with the focus solely on the outlook for 2025. Over the last weeks, I have gathered new ideas, but also brought my thoughts in order during the days that I took off. There are a few other things I wanted to share. What could the next investing year have in store for us?

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Swiss Re – next reinsurer to make a new high?

Most stocks of the world’s biggest reinsurance companies have made new all-time highs, surpassing their decades-long tops. One rare exception is the world’s number two, Swiss Re. With the painful zero interest rate period being over and despite what it looks like another rate lowering cycle, the business is benefiting in two ways: higher insurance premiums as well as higher yields on investments. Is an all-time high for the stock only a question of time?

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Nvidia joined the Dow Jones – a bad omen?

Joining the famous Dow Jones Industrial Average is a prestigious honor. The 30 constituents are the crown jewels of what America offers in stock investments. While not all of the biggest companies are part of the Dow for different reasons, it is safe to say that from an international, outside perspective the Dow is seen as the trophy-collection, containing most of the key blue chips. Recently, Nvidia joined this group. While it could be understood as the final proof of Nvidia’s quality and undisputed standing, historically speaking, this is a clear red flash – a warning that the party could be over soon.

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Antitrust has come into fashion – Capri Holdings after its 50% crash

Back in May, I wrote about the stock of Capri Holdings, the owner of wannabe-luxury fashion brands Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo. My assessment was that despite looking like a bargain, the stock was too risky due to its weak execution on a business level with deteriorating fundamentals. Capri and competitor Tapestry were appealing the blocked takeover attempt by Tapestry which now has been called off for good by the Federal Trade Commission. Capri crashed by 50% in response to the announcement of the deal-freeze. Is the stock now cheap enough?

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Smooth ride or highway to hell for Harley-Davidson?

When a company announces a big buyback (percentage-wise, I don’t care about big headline numbers), I usually start to get interested, provided the case is overall solid. Harley-Davidson on the surface checks several boxes like a famous brand, a loyal customer base, a rock-solid balance sheet, relatively stable earnings and cash flow generation paired with a low valuation – and on top now also a new aggressive buyback program of the equivalent of no less than 20% of stock outstanding. Is this now an incredible contrarian opportunity?

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