Tag Archives: Portfolio

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Best Loser Wins – book summary

With my second book summary, at least on the surface, I am risking to surprise some of my readers. The reason is that the subtitle reads “Why normal thinking never wins the trading game”. The word “never” is underlined on the book cover. My emphasis is on “trading game”. While I have neither secretly switched to day trading, nor do I pursue any such goals, nor do I play any type of game as a fundamentally driven analyst and investor, I have found it nonetheless very insightful to take on the perspective of a day trader. Quite a few of the book’s core messages indeed do resonate well with my own thoughts and approach on portfolio management as well as psychological strength in stock investing.

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Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part II – Alcohol stocks

After my take on food stocks, in today’s second part of the series I am having a look at another failed group of consumer darlings – alcohol producers. These “sin stocks”, similar to tobacco, have been seen for long as one of the best ideas to play defense. Especially in crises, it was said people would smoke and drink even more. The only difference: valuations. While most tobacco stocks today are deep-value plays, alcohol stocks for a long time have had rather rich multiples. Frustrating for those who only looked at the perceived quality of the companies, but not their risks. With many alcohol companies trading substantially below their highs, is now the time to get active?

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Is Fannie Mae really a safe multi-bagger?

Readers who like spicier ideas by now might have heard about ongoing discussions of a potential release of two (in)famous US mortgage companies from conservatorship, i.e. a possible privatization. Yes indeed, state-owned (or partly-owned) enterprises aren’t just a thing of perceived socialist or communist countries. At the latest after none other than hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman pitched his investment case aggressively on Twitter, stocks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have made big waves. According to Ackman, there’s still a substantial upside of 5x left (after already being up by 5x since November). Is this THE no-brainer opportunity for 2025?

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Halozyme Therapeutics – an overlooked bargain? + new stock idea

Feeling uncomfortable with everybody’s darling stocks, my motivation was and still is to find stock ideas with what I call “an own life”. With that I am looking for companies with internal triggers or catalysts which can influence shares positively (almost) regardless of what broader markets do. While I do not believe (for now) in a hefty stock market crash which pushes down all equities, I cannot rule out a nosebleed correction in the tech sector. In search of uncorrelated stock ideas, I spent some time on the Pharma / biotech sector. Halozyme Therapeutics is a seemingly lowly-valued stock. My Premium PLUS members have already received my latest potential-multi-bagger stock idea in an exclusive research report to kick off the year 2025.

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Berkshire Hathaway – an inferior stock pick now

Risking to be accused of blasphemy with this Weekly by one or the other Buffett-fan, nonetheless I decided to have a look at the stock of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett’s investment holding has achieved a tremendous performance and beaten the markets by a wide margin since its inception. However, this was not the case in the younger past. Growth constraints are one reason. But there are quite a few other aspects that do not make this conglomerate appear to be the ultimate must-own stock.

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Warm-up for 2025 – better expect the unexpected

Despite having done a combined review-and-outlook Weekly already, I decided to write another one with the focus solely on the outlook for 2025. Over the last weeks, I have gathered new ideas, but also brought my thoughts in order during the days that I took off. There are a few other things I wanted to share. What could the next investing year have in store for us?

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Drill Baby, drill + new research report “Trump Trade 2.0”

One of the expectations for the second term of president-elect Donald Trump is that “dirty” energy will see a huge revival due to pushing back the strict ESG policies of the current administration. Less wind and solar and back to more oil, gas and coal, maybe with nuclear mixed in. However, despite the perception being that Trump is good for oil and gas producers, the above would be exactly the opposite as more supply means lower energy prices. Will we see aggressive drilling and lower energy prices or shall we prepare for something entirely different? All my members receive my latest stock idea, my second “Trump Trade” which should be a big beneficiary either way.

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How to deal with mistakes to avoid negative compounding

One of the hardest disciplines in investing is how to handle unrealized losses. These positions not only tie up capital that could be invested elsewhere, but they also can paralyze an investor. In its worst shape and form, this condition leads the focus on distractions, not on what’s generating the performance for the portfolio. This is a topic every investor should from time to time think about in order to improve personal investment skills and to avoid being drawn into a negative spiral.

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Nvidia joined the Dow Jones – a bad omen?

Joining the famous Dow Jones Industrial Average is a prestigious honor. The 30 constituents are the crown jewels of what America offers in stock investments. While not all of the biggest companies are part of the Dow for different reasons, it is safe to say that from an international, outside perspective the Dow is seen as the trophy-collection, containing most of the key blue chips. Recently, Nvidia joined this group. While it could be understood as the final proof of Nvidia’s quality and undisputed standing, historically speaking, this is a clear red flash – a warning that the party could be over soon.

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