Author Archives: Alan

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Silvercrest buyout – is Discovery Silver the next in line?

Last Friday it was announced that my former silver mining stock idea for my members, Silvercrest Metals, will be acquired. Great on one side, as it confirms through my research work to have found a great company. I had laid out that Silvercrest might be an acquisition target one day due to its high-quality mine in Mexico. Bad on the other, as I obviously closed my case too early at “only” +85.1%, leaving some performance on the table. There’s another interesting silver miner in Mexico, sitting not less than on the world’s biggest undeveloped deposit. Is this an even better Silvercrest in the making?

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Stocks and a potential Trump 2.0 presidency + new stock idea

Only about a month until the presidential elections will be held in the US. Depending on the outcome, implications for stock investors and their portfolio composition could be quite different. With the clock ticking, now is a good time to look back at 2016 and to prepare for what’s in store. For my Premium PLUS members, I have dug out a very unconventional idea with the potential to realistically up to 6x in case Donald Trump does indeed win again – with very little dependence on what broader markets could do. On top, there could even be a dividend with a yield of almost 50%.

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VusionGroup – overlooked tech growth story from Europe?

When talking about success stories from the tech sphere, one more likely than not primarily thinks of US companies. While there are a handful of well established big players outside of the US and in addition quite a few ascending, though more locally focussed businesses from Asia and Latin Amerika, too, I must honestly go deep into myself to name two or three European tech success stories of worldwide relevance with a big name, strong growth profile and dominant market position. Among smaller companies, there is a promising candidate to have an eye on – from an unexpected sector.

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Quick profits through short squeezes + new research report

Every (amateur) investor’s dream is to get rich quickly. After a few years in the markets, more experienced investors know this is a naive attitude, most often only good enough to lose money quickly, i.e. the opposite of what was intended initially. However, a suitable strategy which can be mixed into a stock portfolio – especially when searching for uncorrelated ideas – is to look for potential short squeeze targets, given the underlying businesses are not one step away from bankruptcy. A look back at some prominent short squeezes. My members on top receive my latest research report with a potential short squeeze candidate.

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The most profitable, but nearly forgotten online retailer – eBay

Maybe with the exception of the youngest generation, I’m tempted to say that everyone knows eBay. The online retailing dinosaur which was once declared dead due to explosively growing and more modern competitors, is still alive. In fact, it’s even the most profitable such platform. Not noticed by many, its stock has been climbing up to the second-highest point after the separation with PayPal. Time to look at eBay?

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Smooth ride or highway to hell for Harley-Davidson?

When a company announces a big buyback (percentage-wise, I don’t care about big headline numbers), I usually start to get interested, provided the case is overall solid. Harley-Davidson on the surface checks several boxes like a famous brand, a loyal customer base, a rock-solid balance sheet, relatively stable earnings and cash flow generation paired with a low valuation – and on top now also a new aggressive buyback program of the equivalent of no less than 20% of stock outstanding. Is this now an incredible contrarian opportunity?

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Post the Volatility crash – next leg up? + new stock idea to benefit

Isn’t it amazing how forgetful market participants can be? Not even a full month ago, sentiment was as if the (financial) world were about to implode. Just a week later the panic-induced market losses were already gained back and three weeks later the crowd is smelling new all-time highs again. What I’m concerned about is expectations seem to be that nothing unfortunate will happen again. I have become a bit concerned, as complacency seems to be EXTRAORDINARILY high. In such an environment, small shifts are enough to cause a market panic – there are a few signs to be aware of. And a new stock idea for my members to capitalize on that, too.

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Uncle Sam as tenant – part III – prison stocks

Five months ago, I published two articles, each about a company renting out different facilities to US government agencies like the FBI, the postal service or the Department of Veteran Affairs. Both were REITs with seemingly safe tenants and high occupancy ratios. I was not convinced of these stocks, though, due to either high debt and / or the financial well-being of some tenants. Today, I am discussing in this third article the two big private prison stocks.

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Two years of Financial Engineering – about impatience and patience

With this weekly coming off the press, my blog has officially turned two years. Like I have done in August of 2023, I am using this time of the year again for a review to write down my current thoughts regarding the past, the present and the future. While last year’s review was a bit more multi-facetted, I want to discuss the topic of impatience and patience now and how it applies to my stock ideas.

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Estée Lauder – after –75% still not pretty + dividend in danger

A common misconception is that lower stock prices are akin to cheaper shares. Without much explanation, it is logical that this can only apply when the underlying business has at least been stable. Otherwise it is possible that a stock even becomes more expensive! While this is not the case at Estée Lauder, despite a 75% drop from its all-time high, the stock is still looking ugly valuation-wise. A decent downside risk remains. On top, the likelihood for a dividend cut or even entire suspension is significant.

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