Tag Archives: Crisis Investing

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Searching for recession- and tariff-protection

Like I hinted in my outlook for 2025, this year indeed so far has proved to be rather volatile. Sentiment can change almost on a day-to-day basis, depending on political announcements. Even wild swings of 7–10% in just one day are not impossible. Under these circumstances, it makes sense to think about more defensive stocks, assuming the tariff circus continues and / or a recession hits soon. There are the usual suspects which can do the job. But I wouldn’t expect too much upside. My members have already received my next stock idea – one of the most defensive, recession- and tariff-unaffected businesses available – paired with decent upside.

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Afterword to the recent market crash

As irony and destiny wanted it, with the publication of my last Weekly, markets crashed down hard, effectively erasing much of the gains of the last twelve months. Of course, it wasn’t my publication that ignited the fireworks. I had written my Weekly shortly prior to the tariff announcement which was the catalyst that sent markets worldwide lower in fear of a major economic contraction. Big calls for another 1929 depression and 1987 Black Monday crash evaporated, at least for now. Then yesterday, one of the best days on Wall Street EVER. What to make out of this?

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Q1 is over – how hard was the correction for you?

Depending on your personal portfolio composition, the just closed first quarter 2025 might show an entirely different performance. While scrolling through twitter it reads almost like a hefty crash with big losses is behind us, the reality is on an aggregate level not much has happened so far. Even more contradictory, the current correction only involved certain sectors and individual stocks. This is the sector rotation I have written about in the past several times. What to draw out from it for our portfolios?

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Is South Africa’s Sasol a steel at 0.4x book value?

Once a 40 bn. USD heavyweight, South Africa’s energy and chemicals company Sasol has imploded to a market cap of less than 3 bn. USD. South Africa primarily makes negative news, as the country is coping with political instability, a weak economy, high unemployment, the world’s highest inequality, a fragile energy and electricity supply and even recently announced legally allowed expropriations of white people. In this environment, the currency depreciated strongly. Is now the time to look for bargains in this crisis-ridden environment? A look at South Africa’s (former) giant.

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Consumer staples got eaten for lunch – Part I – Food stocks

Weren’t we told stocks of consumer staples should be cornerstones of every mindfully assembled portfolio? With their defensive business models, predictable demand (one needs to eat, drink, clean, etc.), strong brands, consistent dividends and long histories as proof of being in business for a reason, this sounds like a no-brainer. Winning by not losing, everything else is too speculative, isn’t it? However, over the last five and even ten years, exactly this group of stocks has disappointed extremely. Many are in the red and even factoring in their dividends the performance was abysmal. Are valuations now cheap enough to take a bite?

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Halozyme Therapeutics – an overlooked bargain? + new stock idea

Feeling uncomfortable with everybody’s darling stocks, my motivation was and still is to find stock ideas with what I call “an own life”. With that I am looking for companies with internal triggers or catalysts which can influence shares positively (almost) regardless of what broader markets do. While I do not believe (for now) in a hefty stock market crash which pushes down all equities, I cannot rule out a nosebleed correction in the tech sector. In search of uncorrelated stock ideas, I spent some time on the Pharma / biotech sector. Halozyme Therapeutics is a seemingly lowly-valued stock. My Premium PLUS members have already received my latest potential-multi-bagger stock idea in an exclusive research report to kick off the year 2025.

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Stocks of Dollar Stores – now finally a buy?

This Weekly is an update taking a second look at North American “dollar store” operators Dollar General and Dollarama. After almost exactly to the day two years ago, I featured both names in an analysis concluding that I have sympathies for the businesses as such, but not for their stocks. Something quite interesting has happened since: one stock totally cratered, the other advanced by another 75%. The development could not have been more different! What do both have in store now?

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Is focus-investing risky?

One of the first principles a new investor stumbles upon is “don’t put all eggs in one basket”. In other words, diversification is said to be the key to investment success. My longer time readers know that I am strictly opposing this approach in its extreme form. The viewing angle might be even the right one – winning by not losing, respectively by minimizing risks – which is also my strategy. However, there’s a material difference between buying blindly a big basket and focussing on a few investments where one has done the homework.

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Silvercrest buyout – is Discovery Silver the next in line?

Last Friday it was announced that my former silver mining stock idea for my members, Silvercrest Metals, will be acquired. Great on one side, as it confirms through my research work to have found a great company. I had laid out that Silvercrest might be an acquisition target one day due to its high-quality mine in Mexico. Bad on the other, as I obviously closed my case too early at “only” +85.1%, leaving some performance on the table. There’s another interesting silver miner in Mexico, sitting not less than on the world’s biggest undeveloped deposit. Is this an even better Silvercrest in the making?

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Quick profits through short squeezes + new research report

Every (amateur) investor’s dream is to get rich quickly. After a few years in the markets, more experienced investors know this is a naive attitude, most often only good enough to lose money quickly, i.e. the opposite of what was intended initially. However, a suitable strategy which can be mixed into a stock portfolio – especially when searching for uncorrelated ideas – is to look for potential short squeeze targets, given the underlying businesses are not one step away from bankruptcy. A look back at some prominent short squeezes. My members on top receive my latest research report with a potential short squeeze candidate.

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